Defensive money flows, liquidity remains very low as foreign investors post a record 10-session net selling

Concerns about the risk of escalating conflict in the coming weeks kept investors cautious, with trading liquidity across the two exchanges falling below 20 trillion dong. On the session, 153 stocks declined by more than 1%.

VN-Index slips as selling pressure builds into the close

The VN-Index continued to retreat around the 20-day moving average. Trading dynamics showed sentiment weakening further toward the end of the session: while the index closed down only 0.64% (-10.78 points), investors did not benefit, as 41% of HoSE stocks that traded fell by more than 1%, leading to meaningful losses.

In the morning, the VN-Index rose 0.27% (+4.52 points) and at one point gained as much as 1.13% (+18.82 points). Early breadth was stronger, with 146 gainers versus 84 decliners. By the close, breadth deteriorated to 78 gainers versus 233 decliners, confirming the downward trend strengthened over time.

Liquidity pickup fails to support prices

Liquidity remained weak overall but improved during the afternoon. On HoSE, matching value reached VND 7,623.8 billion in the morning and increased 48% to VND 11,246 billion in the afternoon. Despite the liquidity pickup, price action stayed soft, indicating sellers were more aggressive and pushed prices lower.

Large-cap indices hold up better than the broader market

The VN-Index recorded the mildest decline among large-cap indices, supported by several blue chips staying in positive territory: VIC +0.79%, VHM +1.1%, GAS +1.27%, and BSR +1.74%. The VN30 basket also saw LPB +3.11% and DGC +4.63%.

However, the VN30-Index fell more sharply, down 0.84%, with breadth of only 6 gainers to 22 decliners, including 13 stocks that dropped by more than 1%.

Mid-cap blue chips underperform

Mid-cap blue chips were weaker, with MWG -3.06%, VJC -2.66%, VRE -2.57%, and SSI -2%. Among the VN-Index’s top 10 by market capitalization, only HPG fell 2.56%; the remaining names declined by less than 2%.

Market breadth deteriorates; portfolio impact grows

The index’s ability to hold up remained limited, as breadth showed declines dominating earlier in the day. For example, in the morning the VN-Index was still green (+4.52 points), but only 90 stocks rose while 178 fell. The article noted that if large-cap leaders also broke, the index could lose tens of points and sentiment would likely weaken further.

With 153 stocks down by more than 1%, the damage to portfolios was substantial. These declining stocks accounted for about 57% of the total value traded on HoSE, underscoring the scale of selling pressure. While no single stock traded in the trillions, several blue chips—HPG, SSI, MWG, VPB, CTG, MBB, and BID—still saw trading of VND 300 billion or more per stock. In the mid-cap group, VIX -2.41%, CII -2.70%, VCG -3.60%, EIB -3.06%, GMD -4.46%, and PC1 -3.96% also showed liquidity above VND 200 billion per stock.

HoSE matching value drops below key levels

Overall trading remained very weak. HoSE matching value fell more than 8% versus yesterday to VND 18,869 billion, excluding negotiated trades. This was the lowest in six sessions and the third time in two weeks that it fell below 20 trillion dong. The low liquidity reflected market caution about escalating risks from conflict and the lack of near-term catalysts to drive a breakthrough.

Counter-trend gainers show limited breadth

Counter-trend movers traded in relatively small sums or rose modestly. Notable gainers included VHM up 1.1% with VND 727.1 billion, HCM up 2.33% with VND 651.2 billion, DGC up 4.63% with VND 473.6 billion, NVL up 2.88% with VND 383.1 billion, BSR up 1.74% with VND 262.5 billion, and GAS up 1.27% with VND 154.9 billion. The article noted these stocks did not represent a single sector.

Foreign investors step up broad selling on HoSE

Foreign investors were surprised by the scale and breadth of selling. Total net sell value on HoSE rose to VND 1,570.6 billion, the highest in 10 sessions. The leading sell-offs were VHM -463.5 billion, HPG -216.5 billion, MWG -175.2 billion, VPB -170.8 billion, HDB -147.7 billion, FPT -124.1 billion, and VCB -101.2 billion.

On the buying side, foreign investors bought ACB +93.1 billion, MSN +81.3 billion, HCM +75 billion, DGC +72.9 billion, and NVL +59.2 billion.