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The uptrend in deposit rates is likely to continue as credit growth outpaces deposit mobilization and global macro pressures persist, a pattern that has spread beyond private banks to state-owned lenders and is shaping a new baseline for the money market.
Local pressure is the main driver of the recent sharp rise in deposit rates. A report from Dragon Securities JSC (VDSC) said that in the first two months of 2026, credit outstanding grew by 1.4%, while deposits rose only 0.8%, creating liquidity pressure that has pushed banks to raise rates to attract deposits and maintain capital adequacy ratios (LDR).
MB Securities (MBS) added that funding demand is entering a new growth cycle, particularly for long-term funds for public investment projects and infrastructure, which are key drivers of economic growth in 2026.
At the macro level, the international rate environment has remained high for longer than initially expected, limiting the cooling of global funding costs. This has indirectly pressured domestic monetary policy, particularly around exchange-rate stability and inflation control.
VCBS said funding-balance pressure is expected to persist as credit growth stays elevated and public investment disbursement accelerates. In a scenario of heightened geopolitical tensions, the State Bank’s room to maneuver could narrow, potentially leading to a broad-based increase in deposit rates across banks in both speed and scale to defend the domestic currency.
The market’s adjustment wave has been visible in a broad, synchronized rate-hike cycle. Sacombank increased deposit rates across all tenors from six months upward in online channels. The 6–11 month online rates rose from about 6.1–6.3% to 6.8–7.2% per year, an increase of roughly 0.6–0.9 percentage points. For longer tenors (24–36 months), online savings rates reached 7.2–7.6% per year, reflecting strong demand for long-term funding. In-branch rates also increased by 0.2–0.4 percentage points, with longer tenors peaking at 7.2% per year.
VPBank made three rate adjustments within about half a month, lifting the 12-month rate to 7.1% per year. Techcombank offered promotions that could push the effective rate above 8% per year. Military Bank (MB) raised the 12-month tenor by 1.1% to maintain its position among the top-tier rate group.
Competition has also extended beyond traditional banks to digital lenders and online finance platforms. TNEX, a digital platform backed by Maritime Bank (MSB), offers up to 8.5% per year for deposits under 300 million VND, targeting younger customers and office workers seeking higher rates without requiring large balances.
Among state-owned banks, after VietinBank, BIDV and Vietcombank, Agribank was the latest to adjust on March 25, raising the 24-month tenor by 0.7% to 6.7% per year. BIDV remains a leader in this group, with online rates up to 6.8% per year.
These moves point to a challenging period for the economy’s capital costs and highlight the need for regulators to closely monitor system stability to avoid an excessive rate race that could spill over into lending rates and affect enterprise recovery.
Looking ahead to the first half of 2026, ACBS expects deposit-rate increases to continue until the exchange-rate environment becomes more favorable and geopolitical tensions ease, helping foreign exchange flows stabilize.
Experts noted that year-to-date increases have ranged roughly from 1% to 1.5 percentage points versus 2025, but the market has not yet found a true equilibrium. The pressures are expected to weigh more heavily on medium-to-small private banks that rely heavily on customer deposits and have less flexible funding structures than larger banks.
By Le Phuong, VTV.
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