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Bitcoin was trading above $62,000 on April 18, with a prediction market contract showing 99.9% “YES.” The move comes as traders weigh institutional buying against growing supply pressure tied to miners and Bhutan selling.
On April 16, Bitcoin was also above $68,000, with the corresponding contract at 99.9% “YES.” In April, the broader market has increased the probability of a pullback toward $60,000, while bearish sentiment has built around sell-offs attributed to miners and Bhutan.
Liquidity conditions remain a key factor. Daily USDC volume in the April 18 market is reported at $89,134, and order book depth is cited at $89K, which would be consistent with the market moving prices by about 5 percentage points.
While bearish sentiment is rising, the article notes that the market can absorb large trades without sharp price swings. The central question for traders is whether institutional demand can absorb increased supply from miners and Bhutan.
In the April dip market, a “YES” share is priced at 22¢ and pays $1 if Bitcoin reaches $60,000, implying a potential 4.5x return. The article frames this as a bet that would require continued downward pressure.
Exchange net flow data is highlighted as a near-term indicator: sustained outflows would suggest accumulation is occurring elsewhere, while inflows would be consistent with more selling ahead. The Federal Reserve’s next moves on credit conditions are also cited as a factor that could influence whether Bitcoin holds up against the current selling wave.
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