EU oil reserves could cover roughly five months of demand as Middle East tensions disrupt supply

The European Union’s oil reserves could cover roughly five months of demand as Middle East tensions disrupt supply, according to analysts. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released 400 million barrels of oil, including 92 million barrels from 20 EU member states, which could be sufficient for about five months. Still, the EU relies heavily on stockpiles managed by individual member states, with the European Commission coordinating a unified response in crisis situations.

Supply disruption and EU response

Global oil supply is currently tight by about 12 million barrels per day due to Middle East conflict, prompting the EU to implement countermeasures quickly. Alongside higher energy bills, the bloc is urging citizens to reduce personal vehicle use to save fuel.

The alert level across EU27 rose sharply after an emergency energy ministers meeting on March 31, when Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen shifted focus from prices to the risk of supply disruption.

Jorgensen said diesel and aviation fuel face higher shortage risks because of heavy dependence on the Middle East. He also warned that the conflict could be prolonged and urged unity among EU member states to respond.

EU consumption and major demand countries

The EU consumes about 10.5 million barrels of oil per day, roughly 10% of global demand. Germany is the largest consumer at 2.3 million barrels per day, followed by France at 1.6 million and Italy at 1.3 million.

Strategic reserves and IEA-coordinated releases

The EU holds about 100 million barrels of emergency stock, including crude oil, diesel and gasoline. Of this, about 92 million barrels were released on March 11 under the IEA-coordinated plan, out of a total 400 million barrels released globally.

These reserves are managed by individual member states, while the European Commission coordinates in crisis situations. Estimates suggest the reserves could cover about 90 days of net imports or about 61 days of consumption.

France, Germany and Italy hold the largest stockpiles, at around 120 million, 110 million and 76 million barrels respectively. Spain also has substantial reserves, while smaller countries such as Belgium, Luxembourg or Malta store some oil in other EU states.

In total, 20 EU member states participated in the IEA-coordinated release, contributing 91.7 million barrels (about 20% of the total). Germany contributed 19.5 million barrels, France 14.6 million, Spain 11.6 million and Italy 10 million.

Experts say the release is running at about 2.5 million barrels per day and could last around 160 days—nearly five months. Homayoun Falakshahi of Kpler said the released oil is being used mainly to meet domestic demand.

In addition, the EU’s storage system holds about 270 million barrels of crude oil, equivalent to about three weeks of refined product demand.

Limits of the cushion and shortage scenarios

Even though the stocks help offset about 6 million barrels per day of demand, according to Oxford Economics, the measure is temporary. The cushions have limits and will lose effectiveness over time.

In the base scenario, the market could face a shortfall of about 2 million barrels per day. A prolonged Iran conflict could push the figure to 13 million barrels per day after six months.

IEA head Fatih Birol said he is considering continuing to release more oil from strategic reserves. EU leadership has also stated that further releases would not be ruled out if the situation worsens.

Industry pressure and potential replacement supplies

Unlike the 2022 energy crisis, which was mainly linked to gas from Russia, the EU now faces a broader risk of oil shortages, creating a more complex challenge for the wider economy.

Current pressure is also leading the European oil and gas industry to rethink about 4 billion barrels of untapped oil resources, according to the International Association of Oil & Gas Producers (IOGP). Nareg Terzian, IOGP Europe strategist, said the key question is whether to exploit these resources domestically or continue relying on imports.

Terzian argued that untapped resources could serve as a safety net for the EU alongside energy transition efforts such as electrification, improved energy efficiency and infrastructure upgrades. Beyond traditional fields in the North Sea and onshore, he pointed to potential in areas including the Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea, regions expected to strengthen Europe’s energy security in the long term.

As cushion stocks gradually deplete, the EU will face increasing pressure to prevent supply shortages if the conflict persists, creating an urgent long-term energy security challenge.