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Geopolitical tensions in the Gulf have pushed up natural gas prices, a key input in fertilizer production, while also disrupting international shipping routes. Fitch Ratings’ latest report warns that developing economies in Asia face heightened risks of food-price inflation and food insecurity if fertilizer supply chains remain disrupted for an extended period.
The report points to a sharp increase in nitrogen-based urea prices, which have risen by about 50%, from around $465 per ton to $700 per ton. Fitch links the cost pressure to prolonged disruptions affecting fertilizer availability and logistics, with additional strain as many South and Southeast Asian countries enter their planting season.
Fitch notes that if fertilizer prices stay elevated, farmers may reduce fertilizer use or shrink cultivated areas. That could translate into lower crop yields and tighter regional food supplies. The report also highlights that the impact will differ by country, depending on reserves and import dependency.
China, a major fertilizer exporter, is expected to continue export restrictions at least through mid-year, worsening input shortages. Fitch assesses that exposure varies across economies: Malaysia, despite being a major food importer, has lower exposure (about 10%) compared with the Philippines or Bangladesh at around 16%. By contrast, countries with higher dependency—such as Mongolia or the Maldives—face greater risk.
India is assessed to have stronger short-term resilience, supported by fertilizer stocks available for upcoming seasons.
The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that if conflict and high oil prices persist into mid-2026, Asia could see about 9.1 million more people experiencing acute food insecurity. Fitch says this would likely increase fiscal pressure on governments to implement subsidy packages and could contribute to social tensions as living costs rise.
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