Ho Chi Minh City faces 10 million vehicles and a structural overhaul of urban traffic

Traffic pressure in Ho Chi Minh City is approaching the physical limit of a megacity, pushing the city to pursue a structural transformation of urban transport rather than relying on short-term fixes.

At a technical symposium on “Promoting low-emission private transport in Ho Chi Minh City: Solutions in technology, policy and market,” organized by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Ho Chi Minh City Department of Construction, speakers discussed recommendations drawn from analysis results and the need for practical pilot plans that can be implemented soon to promote cleaner urban transport in Ho Chi Minh City and, more broadly, Vietnam.

Road capacity constraints and sensitivity to external factors

Ho Chi Minh City faces a major infrastructure bottleneck. The city would need road area roughly 2.5 times the current level if all 10 million vehicles were on the road, according to Mr. Bùi Hòa An, Deputy Director of the Ho Chi Minh City Department of Construction.

The figure highlights that traditional transport infrastructure has little room left for expansion. Even when only about 60–70% of vehicles are on the road daily, congestion remains widespread, raising social costs and increasing environmental pressure.

Speakers also pointed to how quickly traffic systems respond to external changes. When fuel prices rose briefly, vehicle flows declined and inner-city speeds improved noticeably, from about 25 km/h to 35 km/h.

In addition, the operation of Metro Line 1 from late 2024 has recorded positive signals for air quality along the corridor. While these effects are local, they suggest that traffic efficiency depends not only on infrastructure, but also on vehicle structure and energy consumption patterns.

Two parallel projects: public transport expansion and clean-energy vehicle transition

To address both congestion and emissions, Ho Chi Minh City is developing two core projects designed to run in parallel.

• First project: expand public transport to gradually reduce private vehicles.
• Second project: transition vehicles to use clean energy.

Mr. An said the two projects are intended to complement each other, with dual goals of improving urban operational efficiency and enhancing living conditions.

The approach represents a shift in policy thinking. Instead of treating electric vehicles as a standalone replacement for fossil-fuel vehicles, the city is framing the energy transition as part of a broader restructuring of the transport system. The rationale is that changing vehicle technology without controlling the scale of vehicles would keep infrastructure pressure rising, merely shifting the problem from one form to another.

Targeted conversion of high-utilization vehicle groups

Implementation is being pursued with focus rather than broad expansion. Prioritized vehicle groups include taxis, ride-hailing vehicles, government service transport, and logistics vehicles—categories characterized by concentrated activity, high frequency, and easier management, but also higher fuel consumption and emissions.

Data from the Department of Construction shows that more than 1,500 taxis and ride-hailing vehicles have switched to electricity. Authorities also noted that about 90% of motorcycles in the manageable category have been included in the conversion path.

Mr. An said the transformation scale is modest relative to the total fleet, but is considered reasonable in the early stage when resources are limited and infrastructure is not yet complete. He added that focusing on high-utilization vehicle groups can improve emission-reduction effectiveness and create spillover effects to other vehicle groups.

Authorities also highlighted a gradual shift in consumer behavior, noting that interest in electric vehicles is increasing, though it has not yet reached large scale. They said transport energy transition cannot rely only on administrative mandates and requires voluntary market participation.

Charging and battery-swapping infrastructure: pace, placement, and policy support

Charging infrastructure is becoming a key determinant of how quickly the transition can proceed. UNDP transport expert Dr. Phạm Duy Hoàng said Ho Chi Minh City currently has more than 1 million battery-swapping points and about 2,000 public charging stations installed.

Dr. Hoàng said the current ratio is about 8 electric vehicles per charging point, which is below international recommendations, indicating that infrastructure investment is moving ahead of market development.

He also emphasized that the challenge is not only the number of charging assets, but their spatial organization and deployment mechanisms. With the legal framework still being refined, the city has adopted a flexible approach: mapping potential locations and publicly announcing them to enable private-sector access. To date, about 700 locations have been identified to support upcoming infrastructure projects.

Dr. Hoàng said this approach can shorten project preparation time and leverage private resources, but requires tight coordination among regulatory agencies—particularly on land issues, construction permits, and grid connections.

On the policy side, the city is building financial incentives for enterprises to participate in the transition. Mr. An said the city is preparing a loan package with an interest rate of about 3% per year over seven years for green-vehicle projects to reduce initial investment costs, which are a major barrier for transport companies.

Legal frameworks are also being refined. The Construction Law 2025 includes requirements to integrate charging infrastructure in new buildings, especially condominiums and urban areas. The Ministry of Industry and Trade issued Circular 60/2025/TT-BCT on electricity pricing for charging stations, providing an initial framework for the charging service market.

However, experts warned the current policy framework remains imperfect, particularly regarding integrated planning, infrastructure classification, and specific electricity pricing mechanisms. They said these areas need continued refinement to ensure a synchronized transition.

International approaches and the need for integrated planning

Speakers noted there is no single model for EV infrastructure development. China has chosen to invest in infrastructure first to stimulate the market, while the US and Europe develop infrastructure in line with real demand to optimize investment efficiency. Regardless of the model, the common requirement is that charging infrastructure must be integrated into urban planning from the outset rather than added later.

Battery-swapping as an alternative route for two-wheelers

Another trend discussed was the battery-swapping model, especially for two-wheeled vehicles. Dr. Hoàng said it has been implemented in several markets with networks of thousands of stations and tens of thousands of swapping points, demonstrating potential to reduce pressure on traditional charging infrastructure.

Balancing deployment speed with risk control

For Ho Chi Minh City, the transition to electric transport is not only a technology or environmental issue, but a comprehensive restructuring of the urban transport system. The greatest challenge, speakers said, is not choosing a direction, but balancing deployment speed with risk control.

If deployment is too slow, the city may miss opportunities to improve operational efficiency and environmental quality. If deployment is too fast while infrastructure and policies are still incomplete, risks include electrical grid overload, misalignment of standards, and potential environmental problems.

Against this backdrop, early signals from markets and policy suggest Ho Chi Minh City has begun a calculated transition path, emphasizing experimentation, adjustment, and phased expansion. While it may not be a breakthrough move, speakers said it can provide a foundation for a long-term transition in which transport is reorganized for greater efficiency and aligned with urban sustainable development goals.