March 2026 CPI hits five-year high amid energy and transport pressures

Vietnam’s consumer price index (CPI) rose in March 2026, according to the Q1 2026 socio-economic report released by the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance) on 4 April 2026. The CPI increased 1.23% month-on-month and 4.65% year-on-year, marking the highest March CPI reading in five years.

March CPI: transport leads the rise

In the 1.23% monthly increase, prices rose in 9 groups while 2 groups declined. The main driver was the transport group, which climbed 12.85% and directly added 1.28 percentage points to the overall CPI.

The report links the transport increase to disruptions in global supply chains caused by armed conflicts in the Middle East. Domestic diesel prices surged 57.03% and petrol rose 29.72%. Higher fuel costs then fed into transport services, pushing airfares up 23.19% and rail fares up 13.92%.

Outside transport, the housing and construction materials group rose 0.77%, attributed to higher input costs and fuel prices. By contrast, the food and dining-out group fell 0.59%, helping limit the overall CPI increase.

Quarterly CPI and group contributions

For the first quarter of 2026, CPI averaged +3.51% year-on-year. Among the constituent groups, the housing and materials group led the gain at 5.69%, contributing 1.29 percentage points to the overall CPI.

Next was the food and dining services group, up 4.55%, mainly driven by pork prices and higher out-of-home dining during the Tet holiday.

Core inflation: higher than CPI

Core inflation in March rose 0.47% month-on-month and 3.96% year-on-year. For Q1 2026, core inflation averaged 3.63% year-on-year, higher than the CPI’s 3.51% annual pace.

The report attributes the difference to the treatment of food prices: while food prices are excluded from the core inflation calculation, they still offset the CPI.

On the downside, the information and communications group declined 0.20% in March, helped by ample supply of technology equipment and intense competition among distributors, which supported price stability.

Gold and foreign exchange: sharp market moves

The report also highlights sharp movements in precious metals and foreign exchange markets.

Gold: Domestic gold prices moved in the opposite direction to world prices. International gold prices, as of 28 March, fell 2.27% month-on-month to an average of 4,909.01 USD per ounce, as investors booked profits and shifted capital to the USD. Domestically, however, the March gold price index rose 1.54% month-on-month and surged 82.77% year-on-year, driven by sentiment and market adjustments.

USD: The domestic USD price tracked global trends. The free market USD was around 26,315 VND/USD. For the quarter, the domestic USD price increased 0.72% month-on-month and 2.58% year-on-year, supported by the Federal Reserve’s persistence at high rates (3.5–3.75%) and risk-averse sentiment amid geopolitical risk in the Middle East.