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VN-Index is expected to trade in a range around 1,880-1,890 points, with a possible retest of the 1,850-1,860 area, according to AseanSC. Analysts cited continued accumulation, alongside signs that the market is consolidating after the previous rally.
Yuanta Vietnam (Yuanta) said the VN-Index advanced on light liquidity, staying above the MA5 technical support while turnover remained low. This combination typically points to a consolidation phase following the prior upswing.
On sentiment, Yuanta noted the sentiment indicator has fallen to a low level, approaching the fear threshold (below 40). Based on this, Yuanta expects the index to continue consolidating before moving higher toward 1,900.
Yuanta highlighted sector-level pressure and rotation. The Oil & Gas group faces strong selling pressure, but many stocks have moved beyond the aggressive selling phase and are now in a secondary correction. In contrast, the technology group—such as FPT—shows accumulation and remains above the 52-week low.
For investor positioning, Yuanta suggested holding existing stocks and adding on pullbacks, focusing on Retail, Banking, Real Estate, Construction, and Public Investment, while avoiding chasing.
TPS noted that a breakout signal has appeared, but a breakout with high reliability requires further confirmation from money flow. TPS’s strategy is to maintain moderate stock exposure, prioritize profitable positions, and avoid chasing rallies when money-flow signals are unclear. The firm also emphasized tight risk control and readiness to reduce weight if selling pressure increases.
TPS’s base scenario remains centered on 1,880-1,890. If the index holds above this zone, it could target 1,900-1,920. Short-term guidance is to keep equity exposure at 65-80%, add only on clean pullbacks or confirmed breakouts, and maintain a core portfolio for medium-to-long-term investors, deploying gradually on dips.
Vikki Bank’s CTCK argued that liquidity remains tight and that portfolio restructuring is accelerating ahead of the holidays, when trading may resume with a more cautious tone. The firm recommended monitoring fundamentally solid stocks for potential accumulation opportunities once trading picks up.
BIDV (BSC) said money is spreading to other sectors, but overall market participation still depends on a handful of stocks and lacks broad consensus, warranting caution.
SHS added that the VN-Index could trend higher above 1,820 in the short term, potentially retesting late-February/early-March highs around 1,890-1,900 before possible pullbacks linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. SHS also warned that if gains continue, the index may approach overbought conditions, with selling pressure near 1,890 in the next few sessions.
Analysts pointed to improving dispersion and thinning breadth as VN-Index approaches prior highs. Many sectors are underperforming the index, with VinGroup weighing on performance. This dynamic may pressure sentiment as the risk of losses rises, suggesting investors should reduce speculative exposure in the near term.
After Q1 results, the upcoming holidays could also create information gaps, which may further increase caution.
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