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After seven weeks of fighting, U.S. President Donald Trump has not been able to force Iran to meet all of his demands. The conflict has also highlighted what analysts describe as Trump’s vulnerability to economic pressure, as gas prices rise, inflation increases, and his approval rating falls.
Although Iran said on April 17 that it would temporarily reopen the Hormuz Strait to ships, the broader Middle East crisis has underscored the limits of the economic damage Trump is willing to accept. Energy price increases in the world’s largest economy have contributed to higher inflation and growing concern among consumers, while the president seeks a diplomatic deal to reduce domestic impact.
Analysts say Iran is capable of inflicting economic damage that Trump and his aides underestimated, including what they describe as the most severe energy shock in history. While the U.S. is not dependent on oil disrupted by Iran’s control of the Hormuz Strait, higher energy prices still affect American consumers.
A University of Michigan survey released last week put the U.S. consumer confidence index at 47.6 points in April, a record low and down more than 10% from March. Joanne Hsu, who led the report, said many consumers blame the Iran conflict for adverse changes to the economy, with declines reported across age groups, incomes, and political views.
The IMF warning this week about global recession risks further dampened the outlook. The IMF also estimated U.S. growth this year at 2.3%, down 0.1 percentage point from its January forecast.
Pressure to end the conflict is rising as Republican lawmakers face the challenge of defending their fragile majority in Congress ahead of the midterm elections in November. Iranian leaders are also said to be leveraging control of the Hormuz Strait to pressure the U.S. back to the negotiating table.
“Trump is feeling the economic pressure; this is the Achilles’ heel in the conflict of his own making,” said Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy adviser to President Obama.
White House spokesperson Kush Desai said the administration is pursuing a deal with Iran to find a temporary solution for the energy market, adding that the United States “has never abandoned the goal of ensuring affordable costs and economic growth.”
On April 7, Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. The shift from air strikes to diplomacy followed pressure from financial markets and a segment of voters. Some economic effects are also falling on American farmers, as fertilizer supply is disrupted by the Hormuz closure. Airfares have also risen as fuel costs increased.
Global oil prices fell sharply, and U.S. financial markets continued to rally on April 17 after Iran said the Hormuz Strait would stay open for the remainder of the ceasefire. Trump then declared the shipping lane safe and said a deal was nearing completion, largely on U.S. terms.
Reuters reported that the two sides still have differences to resolve. A senior official in the Trump administration said the United States maintains “red lines” in talks with Iran. On April 18, a day after the Hormuz opening was announced, Iran reimposed restrictions on the shipping lane.
Experts warn that even if fighting ends soon, economic damage could take months or even years to repair. They point to the caution shown by former President Joe Biden after the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, when concerns about reducing energy supply and driving up U.S. gasoline prices influenced the approach to energy-sector sanctions.
Trump has also shown sensitivity to criticism that his policies have lifted prices. Analysts cite his reduction of tariffs on China last year after Beijing retaliated. Trump won the 2024 election promising lower gasoline prices and lower inflation.
Analysts say Trump may have misjudged how Iran could retaliate economically. Tehran has attacked energy infrastructure in Gulf states and blocked the strategic shipping route. Gulf Arab states want the conflict to end quickly, but they are unlikely to accept a settlement without security guarantees. Anwar Gargash, the UAE’s foreign affairs adviser, warned that the end of the conflict should not create long-term instability in the region.
Many voters still support Trump, but doubts about his ability to help the Republican Party regain power are growing, particularly among independent voters, ahead of the midterm elections.
Hà Thu (Reuters)
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