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Geopolitical tensions are running high as US-Iran peace talks remain stuck, effectively leaving the Strait of Hormuz largely shut. The strait handles roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply, and the disruption is already affecting logistics and operations, with shipments delayed and some drilling activities shut down.
In response, US energy exports are setting records as the market reroutes supplies. Inventories also reflect the reduced Middle East flow, with draws adding pressure to available supply. The US energy market is described as soft in the near term, partly due to the shoulder season—between winter’s cold and summer’s peak demand—along with mild spring weather that reduces heating demand while supporting strong storage injections. As a result, inventories are reported to be about 8% above seasonal norms.
Production has eased somewhat in response to low prices, though US LNG exports remain strong and near record levels. Overall supply and demand are characterized as pointing to a comfortable supply cushion heading into summer, with no near-term expectation of demand spikes driven by weather.
Natural Gas is trading around $2.716 and moving within a descending channel, with lower highs and bearish closes. A key support level is identified at $2.672, while resistance is seen near $2.806. The RSI is at 42, indicating bearish momentum without being oversold.
Using a Fibonacci retracement range from $3.065 to $2.568, resistance near $2.806 is highlighted as a level the price is bumping against. Moving averages are sloping down, reinforcing a bearish bias. If price breaks below $2.672, the article suggests a potential move toward $2.600.
Trade idea: Sell on a break below $2.67, with a stop at $2.81.
WTI crude closed at $98.30, just below an intraday peak of $98.85. The price action is described as showing resistance around the $98 to $100 area, supported by an upper wick. Although the descending channel has been broken, the article notes that WTI is still finding it difficult to move above its 200-day moving average.
A Fibonacci retracement from $115 to $70 points to the 0.618 level aligning with current resistance near $98. The RSI is at 55, suggesting some momentum but not enough to be described as strongly bullish. Support is cited at $95.38, and a break above $100.68 is described as opening the door to $105.75.
Trade idea: Buy only if the daily close stays above $100, with a stop at $95.30.
Brent crude is trading at $103.72, positioned between $99.51 and $107.28. The article describes the chart as indecisive, with small candlestick bodies and a symmetrical triangle pattern, implying that a breakout confirmation is awaited. The RSI is at 48, indicating limited momentum in either direction.
Volatility is expected to rise as the trendlines converge near $104. A Fibonacci retracement from a high of $111.58 to a low of $92 is cited as placing $103 at the equilibrium level. The article notes that a close above $107.28 and $111.58 would shift focus higher, while a breakdown below $99.51 could raise the possibility of a move toward $96.00.
Trade idea: Sell if price breaks down under $99.50, with a stop at $103.80.
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