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Summary statistics on the VN-Index indicate the probability of gains remains above 50%, and the April 5% effect is likely to continue positively into May.
In the past week, Asian equity indices continued to outperform other investment channels, led by Korea and Taiwan.
Brent crude oil prices have maintained a positive uptrend as US-Iran tensions have not fully cooled, suggesting the trend may persist in the near term and inflation risks could remain elevated. The oil market is expected to focus on OPEC’s new quotas to be announced next week after the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC.
Last week, Japanese government intervention in the currency market caused the USD index to fall sharply to curb yen weakness. However, this did not extend the rebound in the metals group (gold, silver, etc.), which remains in a short- to medium-term downtrend.
US stock funds attracted a net inflow of about $7.05 billion in the week, marking the second consecutive week of inflows and signaling renewed investor confidence.
Within equities, inflows into large-cap funds totaled $14.67 billion as investors sought shelter in blue-chip companies with solid balance sheets. By contrast, small-cap funds and sectoral equity funds recorded outflows of $1.34 billion and $3.82 billion, respectively.
The bond market saw net outflows of over $10 billion, the first weekly outflow since December 2025 following the Fed’s actions and inflation fears.
In currency and precious metals markets, currency funds continued to attract $5.88 billion despite concerns about Japanese intervention in the USD. Meanwhile, gold and other precious metal funds recorded a slight decline as investors took profits after a strong run in 2025.
A positive note from the April rebound is that, historically, S&P 500 gains above 5% in April tend to bode well for the rest of the year, including across the April-October period, which is often affected by the Sell in May effect.
Global PMI indices rose sharply, signaling global growth is accelerating. This is seen as important for cyclical rotation across global markets, including the U.S., emerging markets, and commodities.
In Vietnam’s stock market, the VN-Index growth score improved to 79 points, indicating the market’s growth remains neutral.
VN-Index analysis suggests the probability of gains remains above 50%, and the April 5% effect is expected to continue to positively influence May.
MBS Securities also notes that after more than five weeks of rebound, the VN-Index could break above 1,900 points, a level seen earlier in 2026. However, the market could enter a broad correction if money flows concentrate in only a few individual stocks.
Technically, the support zone for a pullback is around 1,780–1,800 points. After the Q1 2026 earnings season, the market enters an information trough in May, when the index may rise but many stocks may lag or be left behind, and outside money could cause divergence from the index.
This is described as a pause to accumulate momentum for a longer-term move beyond 1,900 points rather than a sign that the uptrend has ended.
A key risk is ongoing volatility tied to the Middle East conflict. May is also characterized as a low-information period domestically, while global equities are at new highs, which could increase the risk of a correction.
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