Oil, gas and logistics firms see profit shifts in Q1 2026

In Q1 2026, MBS projects that overall market profits could grow by about 25% year over year, but growth will not be broadly diffused. Instead, profit gains are expected to concentrate in a few sectors or in a limited number of companies with favorable, company-specific factors.

Sector profit growth highlights

Among the sectors showing notable profit growth are real estate (up 407% YoY), oil and gas (up 122% YoY), and retail (up 46% YoY).

Oil and gas: value-chain support and company-specific drivers

For the oil and gas energy group, the high oil price environment is expected to provide positive effects across the value chain. At the upstream, higher selling prices for oil/condensate are projected to improve investment efficiency, spur final investment decisions (FID), and support demand and prices for oil and gas technical services.

• PVS is expected to benefit from a backlog in the mechanical and construction (M&C) segment, particularly progress on design, procurement, construction and installation (EPCI) for Block B, with expected profit of VND 480 billion.
• PVD grew 86% YoY on the back of re-signed rig contracts with higher daily charter rates and contributions from partner rigs.
• PVT mainly operates domestically and in Southeast Asia, so it is less affected by bottlenecks in the Middle East. Freight rates are rising to support profits, but gains are limited because the company does not own ultra-large crude carriers (VLCCs), with profits expected to rise by about 19% YoY.
• GAS faced disruptions in LPG supply from early March, leading to a slight end-quarter output decline. However, LPG prices doubled and liquefied natural gas (LNG) nearly tripled, improving selling prices. While margins were pressured by input costs, they were partially offset by higher LPG prices. Profits are expected to reach VND 3,174 billion, up 15% YoY.

Downstream: crack spread rebound and higher domestic fuel prices

On the downstream side, BSR is expected to continue operating at full volume in Q1 and benefit from a rebound in crack spreads, with profits expected at VND 4,217 billion, up 957% YoY. PLX is supported by higher domestic gasoline/diesel price levels, with expected profits of VND 286 billion, up 114% YoY.

Transportation and logistics: fuel-cost pressure

In the transportation sector, Q1 2026 results for the logistics group generally remained growth, but risks of margin compression are increasing as fuel prices rise.

Ports: container throughput growth

In the first two months of 2026, container throughput through the Vietnamese port system is estimated to have risen about 18.2% YoY, driven by efforts to expand and diversify markets. This is expected to support continued growth in Vietnamese port container throughput.

Postal and express: volume growth, cost headwinds

For the postal and express industry, nationwide mail volume is expected to continue rising versus a year earlier, supported by total retail sales growth of 7.9% YoY in the first two months. The increase is attributed to strong purchasing power during the Lunar New Year and the ongoing shift to e-commerce.

However, cost pressures are mounting as Brent crude prices rose sharply since early March, which is expected to directly erode gross margins for logistics and postal businesses such as HAH and VTP.

Port enterprises: relatively less exposure to fuel costs

Conversely, port enterprises such as GMD, which have a lower share of fuel costs and have adjusted service prices upward since the start of the year, are expected to suffer less negative impact and maintain margin growth thanks to higher throughput.