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The previous Bitcoin market top may not have been marked by a dramatic crash or an obvious sell signal, but by a coordinated wave of whale distribution. ForeDex reported on X that, during a period when BTC participants were optimistic, a whale moved roughly 30,000 BTC to exchanges over 10 days via Galaxy Digital—while many market participants did not recognize the significance of the flows.
ForeDex said the top last year developed through a quiet, coordinated distribution rather than a sudden, easily identifiable sell-off. According to the report, the BTC was split into smaller amounts and distributed across multiple exchanges. This differed from earlier cycles, when large flows—often ranging from several thousand to 10,000 BTC—were sent directly to platforms such as Coinbase, Binance, or Gemini in single transactions, making the movements easier to detect.
After ETF approval, ForeDex noted that market structure and trading behavior became more sophisticated. With selling pressure spread across different exchanges, the historical exchange-specific sell premium became less reliable. It also said that the Coinbase-Binance Gap data no longer shows the same traces as clearly as in prior cycles.
ForeDex added that even if some participants had identified unusual flows, the strong optimism and conviction at the peak could have led many to dismiss them.
Crypto analyst Kaz said Bitcoin is showing signs of weakening market structure, with price forming lower highs after rejection at $82,000. Kaz highlighted a sharp rise in Open Interest (OI) as a key warning sign, alongside declines in both perpetual and spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD). The analyst said these trends suggest bullish traders are being squeezed out.
Kaz also described bears as actively building short positions, with ongoing liquidation adding fuel to the decline. He argued that additional long positions could be flushed out, given that perpetual and spot CVDs are declining and there is still long liquidation on the downside.
Bitcoin is currently retesting the $80,000 level, where Kaz said the highest OI bearish positioning seen at this level so far is concentrated. Kaz outlined two potential paths:
BTC trading at $80,668 on the 1D chart | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView.
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