Prices of many fruits fall as export growth outpaces domestic demand

Export value of fruits and vegetables rose by more than 27% in the first quarter to about 1.3 billion USD, signaling strong export performance. Durian remains a bright spot, up nearly 128%, while coconut and pomelo rose about 26% and nearly 29%, respectively. However, the gains did not spread evenly among items, as many fruit varieties posted declines. Bananas fell about 20%, mangoes more than 15%, watermelons around 12%, while jackfruit and lemons declined by 7% and over 9%, pulling domestic prices down. These fruits are heavily dependent on traditional markets and are vulnerable to shifts in demand or changes in import regulations. The mismatch among product groups quickly manifested in the domestic market. When exports slow or consumption is unstable, supply flows back into the country, creating oversupply pressure and pushing prices down. Durian Ri6 at a farm in Can Tho. Photo: Manh Khong. In reality, many agricultural products are falling to very low levels. Watermelons in some areas were as low as 1,000-5,000 VND per kg; seedless oranges down to 1,000-3,000 per kg at the orchard. Export prices of jackfruit are only 5,000-8,000 VND per kg. Even Hoa Loc mangoes—usually among the higher-priced varieties—now down to 9,000-15,000 per kg, a sharp drop from before Tet. Notably, the downward price trend is not limited to fruits that are hard to sell; it is also spreading to export-driven items. Recently, Ri6 durian prices in many growing regions are only around 20,000-35,000 VND per kg, the lowest in years and down sharply since the start of the year. This indicates that even fast-growing items are under pressure as supply rises and demand from import markets remains cautious. According to Dang Phuc Nguyen, Secretary General of the Vietnam Vegetables and Fruits Association, the sharp decline in farm prices is driven by multiple factors. First, the Chinese market — the main consumer of Vietnam's fruit — is tightening quarantine and quality standards. For durian, Thai fruit is in season, causing Vietnamese fruit to face intense competition. Additionally, the market is in a transitional phase before fully applying new origin-tracing requirements and growing area codes under the Protocol and Circular 280 from June 1. Buyers are cautious, purchasing only to hold to minimize the risk of returns at the border. Moreover, logistics costs have risen due to Middle East conflicts pushing up fuel and freight rates. This has slowed fruit exports to the EU and the US compared with a year earlier. Some enterprises have even paused shipments until operations in these regions stabilize to avoid losses or damage.