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Bitcoin faces a potential new security risk as quantum computers advance: a sufficiently powerful quantum machine could, in theory, crack the encryption that protects Bitcoin transactions. While no such quantum computers exist today, the concern is that an attacker could steal coins from users’ wallets without any user error. A Google Quantum AI research paper published on March 31 suggested that cracking Bitcoin’s encryption with a quantum system may require less advanced hardware than previously expected, making the threat more immediate.
In response, the Bitcoin developer community has begun exploring work-arounds and potential patches. One proposal, Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 361 (BIP-361), was submitted to the project’s official code repository on April 14 and quickly drew intense debate.
Under BIP-361, if adopted, all Bitcoin holders would be required to migrate their coins to new quantum-resistant wallet addresses within five years. The proposal’s most contentious element is that after the migration period ends, holders would permanently lose the ability to transfer or spend the coins that were not migrated.
Supporters and critics alike expect that the migration requirement could affect large holdings, including the estimated 1.1 million bitcoins attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto, valued at roughly $80 billion. The proposal is also expected to have severe market effects, most likely pushing prices downward, and possibly doing so permanently.
Detractors argue that BIP-361 sets a precedent that conflicts with the immutability of property rights—an idea often cited as central to Bitcoin’s value proposition. Phil Geiger, head of business development at Metaplanet, said the proposal amounts to claiming: “We have to steal people’s money to prevent their money from being stolen.”
Geiger’s critique frames the proposal as closer to burning users’ money without permission to prevent potential future theft. Critics also argue that if developers can effectively lock users out of their assets through technical governance decisions, it could damage confidence in Bitcoin as a system.
BIP-361 is not expected to be adopted soon, and it may never be. Moving from a draft proposal to broad consensus typically takes years, and Bitcoin’s decentralized governance makes coordination for major upgrades slow. One developer of BIP-360 estimated that a full migration could take about seven years from the moment consensus forms, and consensus is not currently close by any estimate.
For holders, the article suggests there is no immediate action required. Tools for a quantum-safe future are being developed, and Bitcoin is expected to implement them in some form over time. For investors holding Bitcoin through a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), the custodian would be responsible for migrating coins as needed to maintain security.
Decisions being made now about how to mitigate quantum computing risks will influence whether Bitcoin can continue functioning as a dependable store of value in the coming decade. Until the issue is resolved in a way that is widely accepted, high-risk proposals like BIP-361 are likely to continue appearing, potentially increasing Bitcoin’s risk profile.
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