Retail sector enters a new cycle as MWG and PNJ set record profit targets; FRT, MSN, and DGW aim for strong growth

Entering 2026, many large retailers are collectively setting plans for double-digit profit growth, signaling expectations of a renewed cycle of domestic demand recovery.

2026 profit targets: double-digit growth across major retailers

The Gioi Di Dong (MWG) targeted after-tax profit of more than VND 9,200 billion in 2026, up about 30% from the previous year. If achieved, it would be the highest level in the company’s history.

PNJ set a 2026 after-tax profit target of around VND 3,409 billion, up more than 20%, aiming for a new record as jewelry demand is expected to improve.

Masan Group (MSN) plans to reach VND 7,900 billion in after-tax profit in 2026, up about 17%, reflecting expectations of a recovery in the consumer–retail segment.

Other retailers also set high-growth targets: FPT Retail (FRT) aims for pretax profit growth of 27% to around VND 1,550 billion, supported by momentum from the pharmacy chain. DigiWorld (DGW) plans pretax profit growth of nearly 19% to around VND 660 billion.

Policy backdrop: retail development strategy through 2030

The anticipated strong profit growth is supported not only by company performance but also by macro policy directions. Late last year, the Prime Minister approved the Vietnam Retail Market Development Strategy through 2030, with a vision to 2050.

Key targets in the strategy include:

• By 2030, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue (excluding price changes) to grow on average 11–11.5% per year.
• Online commerce revenue to grow on average 15–20% per year, accounting for 15–20% of total retail goods and consumer service revenue nationwide by 2030.
• About 40–45% of small and medium enterprises to participate in e-commerce platforms by 2030.

Q1 2026 outlook: forecasts point to sharp year-on-year growth

Many Q1 earnings forecasts for 2026 indicate positive prospects for the retail group.

Company-by-company forecasts (Q1 2026)

SSI Research projects MWG after-tax profit in Q1 2026 at VND 2,250 billion, up 45% year-on-year and up 8% quarter-on-quarter. Growth is driven by the technology devices and appliances segment and improved efficiency in the grocery retail segment. If accurate, MWG would set a quarterly profit record.

For FRT, Q1 2026 after-tax profit is forecast at VND 370 billion, up 74% year-on-year and up 6% quarter-on-quarter. SSI Research attributes the rise to demand for upgrading and replacing laptops and smartphones, alongside ongoing improvement in the pharmaceuticals segment.

SSI Research also forecasts DGW may post NPAT of VND 170 billion in Q1 2026, up 60% year-on-year and up 5% quarter-on-quarter.

Even MSN and PNJ are expected to post double-digit growth versus 2025. MSN is forecast to post after-tax profit of VND 2,500 billion, up 154% year-on-year and up 9% quarter-on-quarter, supported by sustained tungsten price strength, recovery in the food and beverage segment, and efficiency gains in retail operations.

PNJ’s NPAT is forecast to grow 121% year-on-year to VND 1,500 billion, up 23% versus the prior quarter.

Additional estimates from MB Securities (Q1 2026)

MB Securities estimates Q1 2026 NPAT as follows: PNJ at VND 1,320 billion (up 95%); DGW at VND 150 billion (up 42%); FRT at VND 219 billion (up 30%); MWG retail at VND 1,950 billion (up 26%); and MSN at VND 1,149 billion (up 192%).

For the full year 2026, MBS projects growth for listed retailers of 20% to 33% versus a year earlier.

Analyst view: key drivers for retail-listed firms

ACBS’s latest retail sector report highlights four key growth drivers. First, consumer purchasing power is expected to improve albeit slowly, aided by government stimulus measures, adjustments to personal income tax, extension of VAT reductions, and easing tariff concerns.

Second, new tax policies for household businesses could promote fair competition between retailers and the informal sector.

Third, modern retailers may benefit from the shift in consumer purchasing from traditional channels to modern channels, further supported by tax policies that may reduce the informal economy. However, market-share expansion will depend on each company’s market position and the degree of fragmentation in the sector.

Fourth, supportive factors include urbanization, favorable demographics with a large and young population (though these advantages may weaken over the next decade due to aging), and rising living standards and incomes.