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Russia may be forced to cut oil output in April 2026 after Ukrainian drone strikes disrupted key export ports and damaged refineries, leaving the Druzhba pipeline to Europe out of operation, Reuters reported citing unnamed sources.
Reuters said Russian oil production in April 2026 could fall by about 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) from the early-year average. If confirmed, the decline would be the largest monthly drop in six years, since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Most of Russia’s oil is produced from fields in Western Siberia, a critical source for an economy of about $3 trillion. A production drop would likely reduce export revenue for Russia, the world’s second-biggest oil exporter.
Analysts said any revenue loss could be partly offset by higher oil prices amid global supply disruptions linked to the Iran-related conflict. On April 16, Russia’s finance minister said high oil prices would help narrow the budget deficit.
After launching the military campaign in Ukraine in early 2022, Russia classified oil production data as state secrets for security reasons. Russia’s output peaked in the late 1980s, fell after the Soviet collapse in 1991 due to under-investment, and recovered in the 2000s and 2010s, reaching a post-Soviet high in 2019 before the Covid-19 pandemic.
Reuters’ estimates indicate the April drop would put current output roughly 500,000 to 600,000 bpd below late-2025 levels. However, Reuters noted that a single monthly decline does not necessarily imply a weaker full-year total.
In recent weeks, Ukraine has attacked major western Russian oil-export ports with drones, causing fires and strikes at refineries. If such attacks continue, Reuters said Russia may struggle to sustain exports without reducing output, particularly ahead of the maintenance season.
State-run RIA Novosti reported Russia shot down 11,211 Ukrainian drones in March 2026, nearly double February’s figure. Attacks have targeted the Baltic ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk, the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, and Vysotsk recently, underscoring pressure on western energy supply routes.
Disruptions to Druzhba pipeline flows through Ukraine toward Hungary and Slovakia have yet to be fully restored.
In this context, the International Energy Agency (IEA) downgraded its forecast for Russia’s oil supply for the rest of 2026 by more than 120,000 bpd from earlier estimates, citing ongoing refinery and port damage. The IEA said Russia is likely to struggle in the near term to raise output above early-2026 levels due to infrastructure damage.
OPEC’s March 2026 estimate puts Russia’s output at about 9.167 million bpd, while the IEA’s March figure was 8.96 million bpd.
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