Stock market blog: short-term challenge

Another round of short-term profit-taking emerged this afternoon, supported by fairly high liquidity. Based on index breadth, selling pressure increased in parallel with the upward momentum of the VNI, suggesting the “pull-the-trend” dynamic is triggering a reverse reaction.

Intraday move and breadth deterioration

The 1,800-point level was broken around 2:10 pm, but the stock-by-stock gain/loss ratio at that time was only 0.58 to 1. By the close, the VNI finished at 1,800.65 points, up 1.41%, while the gain/loss ratio remained weak at 0.54 to 1. The strongest gain/loss ratio occurred earlier in the session, around 5.54 to 1, indicating many stocks reversed from up to down; those that were still green also largely retreated.

Cause: profit-taking amid short-term psychology

The pattern points to selling pressure being stronger, linked to short-term profit margins that have been relatively good in recent days. Taking profits is described as reasonable given that short-term psychology remains dominant, even with a relatively calm international backdrop.

Attention is also on the second round of US–Iran negotiations expected to begin in a few days. Oil futures remain around 91–95 USD per barrel (for both types of oil). The market previously hoped for this outcome weeks earlier, but the current environment lacks enough momentum to build durable confidence.

Development: short-term supply-demand and limited catalysts

Supply and demand at this stage are characterized as short-term. Even long-term views are cautious because it is unclear whether the current easing will end the conflict. The afternoon sell-off reportedly had no catalyst from a major event and is therefore treated as a short-term movement only.

Aside from a liquidity spike on 8/4, trading since then has been fairly small. Although the VNI is approaching historical highs, individual stocks are still described as deeply underperforming, so the index does not necessarily reflect a disposal threshold for stocks.

Outlook: potential normal fluctuations and money-flow rotation

As prices rise, profit-taking phases are common. These periods can show the market’s absorption capacity or reveal shifting opinions. In the next few sessions, selling demand may reappear; however, if it does not push prices down too sharply, it may remain within normal fluctuations. Liquidity during downturns should be limited, and even overall lower liquidity can be positive.

The article also notes the possibility of a short-term money-flow reversal effect: when investors take profits in one stock and switch to buying another. Compared with late March—when tensions were rising and there was no clear end in sight—the current backdrop is described as less severe. The market has not shown strong momentum to rise, but it has also not shown risk of reverting to panic.

Derivatives and VN30 levels

In the derivatives market, trading oscillated very narrowly, and at many times the basis stayed positive, making trading difficult. VN30 moved around 1,959.xx but lacked strength to move higher and did not fall enough to change the balance. Even when VIC and VHM led higher, VN30 remained offset by declines in other stocks.

Since the roll-over on March 19, the advantage has been with Long, and the prospect is for expiry to be calm, with the possibility of a rise. Open interest is also described as relatively low compared with the average of nearby expiry days.

VN30 closed today at 1,961.6. Nearest resistance for tomorrow is 1,969; 1,982; 1,997; 2,006; 2,015; 2,027. Supports are 1,959; 1,949; 1,940; 1,923; 1,907; 1,892.

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