Stocks volatile as investors parse developments in Iran war ahead of the March jobs report

Stocks were volatile on Thursday as investors tried to parse developments in the Middle East.

The U.S. has sent thousands of additional troops to the Middle East, a move investors could not determine whether it is intended as a negotiating tactic or as preparation for escalation. The U.S. has repeatedly ramped up operations and threats on weekends, with early signals of the conflict arriving late on a Friday night and President Trump’s threats to target Iran’s energy infrastructure landing on a Saturday. Contradictory messages from the White House, along with Iran’s public denials of many claims attributed to the Trump administration, have added to the uncertainty.

Weekend risk and shifting signals

Over the past year, President Trump has repeatedly adjusted policy in response to market movements, often moderating positions that had caused bond and stock investors to panic. For that reason, investors have found weekends—when markets are closed and the usual feedback channel is shut off—particularly unnerving amid the war in Iran.

Thursday’s trading underscored how quickly sentiment can change. After two days of big gains driven by hopes the war would end soon, stocks fell at the open following President Trump’s televised speech on Wednesday night, in which he threatened to bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages.” Oil then pared earlier gains, and stocks rebounded after reports from Iranian state media said Iran and Oman were developing a plan to jointly monitor traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a development that boosted expectations that an oil supply shock could ease.

“The market is so headline dependent,” Gina Martin Adams, chief market strategist at HB Wealth, told Investopedia late last week. “Investors are looking for clarity where it doesn’t seem like clarity is really possible.”

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as the “fear index,” rose on Thursday but remained below last Friday’s year-to-date high.

Upcoming jobs report adds pressure

Investors are also bracing for the Friday morning release of the March jobs report. In the last report, the U.S. was estimated to have lost 92,000 jobs in February, while economists had forecast an increase of 50,000 jobs. On the day of that report, the major indexes fell by at least 1%.

Economists are again predicting the U.S. added jobs last month, and investors are hoping the outcome matches those expectations.