Tesla bets its future on the robotaxi market.

Tesla’s automotive business is facing continued pressure as deliveries decline faster than the broader electric-vehicle market. Last year, EV sales nationwide fell by roughly 2%, while Tesla’s auto deliveries dropped by around 9%. In response, Tesla’s profits were nearly cut in half in 2025.

The weakness persisted into 2026 as Tesla reported first-quarter deliveries that fell 14% from the previous quarter, though they rose modestly year over year.

Tesla’s stock strength contrasts with delivery declines

Despite the delivery slowdown, Tesla’s share price ended 2025 higher, helping the company’s market capitalization rise to well above $1 trillion. The article attributes the disconnect to expectations that Tesla’s future growth may be driven less by traditional auto sales and more by a potential robotaxi business.

Robotaxi expectations and Ark Invest’s outlook

Ark Invest, a major Tesla investor, argues that Tesla’s robotaxi business could become the dominant driver of enterprise value. The report concludes that Tesla’s robotaxi business could represent approximately 90% of its enterprise value by 2029, capturing a significant share of Ark’s projected ~$10 trillion global robotaxi market.

The report also highlights Tesla’s manufacturing scale as a potential advantage for deploying robotaxis quickly. It states that Tesla’s vertically integrated manufacturing offers a scaling advantage, including the ability to produce more than 5,000 vehicles every day. It further claims that Tesla’s Austin factory alone could produce more vehicles than urban Austin’s entire ride-hail fleet in about 9 days, excluding Tesla’s planned production of approximately 2–4 million Cybercabs annually, slated to begin next year.

Market data and current valuation context

As of the article’s snapshot, Tesla shares were trading around $360.59. The stock’s reported metrics include a market cap of $1.4T, a day’s range of $359.03 to $370.28, and a 52-week range of $214.25 to $498.83. Trading volume was listed at 83M, compared with an average volume of 62M. Gross margin was reported at 18.03%.

How much could auto sales contribute by 2029?

The article suggests that most of Tesla’s value is tied to its robotaxi division rather than its long-standing auto sales business. Ark Invest estimates that by 2029, electric vehicles could approximate a quarter of total sales and about 10% of Tesla’s earnings potential, based on the view that robotaxi margins would be higher.

Price targets and debate over timelines

Ark Invest believes Tesla shares could be worth $2,900 by the end of 2029. The article also notes Ark Invest’s bear case, which suggests shares would be worth at least $2,000 by then.

However, the article expresses skepticism about the timeline, citing Elon Musk’s history of overpromising on autonomous driving and robotaxi potential and frequently being years off in predictions. It also points out that Ark Invest’s price projections appear to take Musk’s near-term guidance seriously, even though the aggressive timeline is a key point of contention.