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Circle Internet Group is facing a class action lawsuit after a reported $280 million exploit of Drift Protocol on April 1, according to the complaint filed in Massachusetts district court by investor Joshua McCollum on behalf of more than 100 members. Allegations tied to a $230 million USDC transfer The…
Bitcoin has pushed back above $70,000 and is testing resistance near $75,000, as risk appetite lifts equities across global markets. XWIN Research Japan argues that the move is more complex than a simple “risk-on” trade, pointing to changes in how traditional assets are behaving and what that could mean for portfolio construction.
The report notes that the VIX has declined back to pre-conflict levels, suggesting fear has eased. However, equity and bond correlations have turned positive again, indicating stocks and bonds are moving in the same direction simultaneously.
That condition—last seen in 2022—is described as a structural break for the traditional 60/40 portfolio. When the assets meant to offset each other move together, diversification benefits weaken and portfolio risk can rise even if market conditions appear calm.
With that backdrop, attention is shifting toward alternatives such as gold, commodities, and increasingly Bitcoin. XWIN Research Japan highlights that Bitcoin has been holding its own price dynamics even during periods of declining fear, appearing less tied to broader market sentiment than equities.
The analysis also cites the Coinbase Premium Index. When the indicator remains positive—meaning Ethereum and Bitcoin trade at a premium on Coinbase relative to Binance—it is interpreted as reflecting underlying spot demand from US investors rather than traders chasing short-term momentum.
Bitcoin’s behavior during risk-off episodes is presented as further support. When the VIX spikes and fear spreads, Bitcoin does not consistently sell off in the same way equities do. The report frames this as the kind of inconsistency that can make an asset a more effective diversifier under stress.
On the weekly timeframe, Bitcoin is attempting to regain momentum after a sharp correction from the $120,000–$130,000 region, which marked a local top in late 2025. The decline into early 2026 drove prices toward $60,000–$65,000, where buyers stepped in aggressively, forming a reaction low with elevated volume.
Since that capitulation phase, BTC has been building a recovery structure and is trading around $74,000, approaching a key resistance zone. The report says this level lines up with prior support from mid-cycle consolidation, which is now acting as overhead supply—effectively testing whether former support can be reclaimed as a new base.
From a trend perspective, Bitcoin remains in a transitional phase. Price is still below the 50-week moving average, which has started to flatten, while the 100-week moving average is being tested from below. The 200-week moving average remains well below price and continues to slope upward, which the report interprets as confirmation that the long-term trend is intact despite recent weakness.
Volume has moderated significantly since the sell-off, suggesting the recovery is not being driven by aggressive speculative inflows but by more gradual reaccumulation.
A sustained move above $75,000 would confirm structural strength. If Bitcoin fails at that level, the report says it would likely remain range-bound between $65,000 and $75,000.
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