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The yield on the 10-year Treasury note closed on April 17, 2026 at 4.26%. The 2-year note ended at 3.71%, while the 30-year yield finished at 4.88%.
A long-term view of the 10-year yield begins in 1965, predating the 1973 oil embargo that helped usher in the era of “stagflation,” defined as economic stagnation coupled with inflation.
An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields. The article describes the latest 10-2 spread as a widely followed leading indicator for recessions, noting that the spread typically turns negative before rising again ahead of downturns.
It also states that the lead time between a negative 10-2 spread and the start of a recession varies, with recessions beginning anywhere from 18 to 92 weeks after the spread goes negative. A cited example of a false positive occurred in 1998, when the spread briefly went negative without leading to a recession.
For the 2009 recession, the spread went negative multiple times before rising again. Most recently, the spread remained continuously negative from July 5, 2022 to August 26, 2024, and the last date it was negative was September 5, 2024.
If the first negative spread date is treated as the starting point, the average lead time to a recession is 48 weeks (about eleven months). Using instead the last positive spread date before a recession, the average lead time is 18.5 weeks (about 4.25 months).
The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs for banks. When the Fed raises the FFR, banks often increase lending rates, which can affect mortgage rates and other borrowing costs. The article notes that, generally, a rising FFR tends to lead to higher mortgage rates, and vice versa.
It adds that this relationship did not hold recently when the Fed began its rate-cutting cycle in September 2024; mortgage rates moved in the opposite direction. The article says mortgage rates have been declining in recent weeks, following a similar pattern to the FFR.
According to the latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, the 30-year fixed rate was 6.30%.
The article indicates that it will compare the 10-year Treasury yield against the S&P 500 and includes notes on Federal Reserve intervention, describing Fed policy as a major influence on market behavior.
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