TVS forecasts Q1 2026 earnings for hot sectors: Retail, Steel, Insurance, and Fertilizers

With the Q1 2026 earnings season approaching, investors are focusing on company results amid a choppy market and shifting capital flows across stock groups. In this context, the earnings outlook is not only a basis for re-pricing equities, but also a potential near-term support for market sentiment.

TVS outlook: positive growth expected in several sectors

In an interview, Nguyen Trong Dinh Tam, Head of the Individual Client Advisory at Viet TVS Securities (TVS), said sectors including retail, insurance, fertilizers, and steel are expected to post positive earnings growth in the first quarter of 2026.

• Retail: TVS estimates earnings growth of 25%–30% year-on-year, supported by improved performance at traditional chains following restructuring. New retail chains such as Bach Hoa Xanh, Era Blue, and Long Chau are also expected to maintain a positive expansion pace.
• Insurance: Net profit is expected to rise 15%–20% year-on-year, driven by stronger deposit rates from late 2025 to date, which supports income from bank deposits for companies in the sector.
• Fertilizers: After-tax profit growth is projected at 40%–50% year-on-year. TVS attributes this to a surge in urea prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East, and the 5% VAT on fertilizer from July 2025, which is expected to improve profit margins.
• Steel: After-tax profit growth is expected to be around 25%–30% in Q1, with notable contributions from Hoa Phat tied to the Dung Quat 2 project. TVS also cited ongoing disbursement of public investment as a factor supporting domestic steel demand.

TVS caution: earnings gains may not fully reflect Middle East impact

Tam cautioned that the positive earnings growth in 1Q2026 may not have fully captured the impact of the Middle East conflict on many listed companies. He added that because stock markets often price expectations in advance, price movements of some listed firms may not fully track 1Q2026 earnings growth.

MBS forecast: profit growth expected, but concentrated

Looking ahead, analyst groups also expect the earnings uptrend in the first quarter to be differentiated rather than broad-based. In its quarterly results forecast, MB Securities (MBS) estimates market-wide profit could rise about 25% year-on-year. However, MBS said the increase is largely localized, with growth drivers concentrated in a limited number of sectors or firms with extraordinary factors.

• Real estate: Profit growth forecast at about 407%, led by VHM.
• Oil and gas: Strong gains expected around 122%.
• Retail: Positive growth forecast at about 46%.

Weaker sectors in MBS’s outlook

• Industrial real estate: Expected to fall 23%, attributed to the timing of land handovers.
• Export: Down about 21%.
• Aviation: Decline of 10% due to rising fuel costs.