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For decades, hundreds of millions of rural workers in China left their home provinces to take jobs in factories and construction sites in more developed eastern and southern cities. But as domestic demand weakens and well-paying urban jobs become scarcer, recruiters and policymakers are increasingly concerned that more migrant workers are choosing to stay in their hometowns or returning from big cities to rural areas.
An official from the state labor service agency in Longhui County, Hunan Province, told the Financial Times that “since 2023, the number of job postings posted by enterprises through our agency has continually fallen, while the number of job seekers has risen steadily.”
The official said this shift is also a concern for social order, reflecting the broader economic transition away from labor-intensive industries toward sectors that require fewer workers. The change is occurring alongside China’s prolonged weakness in real estate and construction.
Chinese authorities have also been increasingly focused on unemployment. In November last year, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a thematic symposium warning about the trend of many workers returning home and remaining in rural areas.
Beijing does not publish annual data on migrant workers returning from cities, but analysts believe the trend has accelerated recently. Ernan Cui, an analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics, said: “During the Covid pandemic, workers returned home because cities were locked down. Now they come back because they have lost their jobs.” She added that job prospects back home have also matured and are harder to expand further.
China has about 300 million migrant workers. As local economies develop, some areas are less attractive than before, and the number of workers leaving hometowns to work elsewhere has fallen continuously since 2015. While workers who go far away still earn more than those who stay, wage growth for this group in 2024 lagged behind wage growth for workers who remained at home.
Jenny Chan, a lecturer at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, said many workers—especially older workers—are facing difficulties as China’s industrial structure shifts toward sectors requiring new skills. She added that labor-intensive manufacturing is under pressure from US-China trade tensions, leaving some workers to return to farming or take seasonal jobs to supplement income.
In FT’s notes at the end of March in Longhui County, many older workers—particularly those in their late 40s, 50s and early 60s—were still staying home for weeks after the Lunar New Year. The county has long sent workers to work far away, especially to cities in Guangdong Province, a major industrial hub in the region.
“Now I also have no reason to rush back,” said Mr. Wang, a construction worker in his fifties, who decided to stay in Hunan and take seasonal work after a project in Guangdong was paused. He told the Financial Times that when work was good, he earned about 15,000-16,000 yuan per month in Guangdong, but now his income is only 7,000-8,000 yuan. He said there are still temporary jobs locally, but earning a solid income is difficult.
At the Longhui labor-service agency, the official said local sport shoe factories now employ only about 200-300 workers, down sharply from nearly 3,000 at the peak. “Because of the US-China trade dispute, orders at these factories have fallen sharply,” the person said.
Cui of Gavekal Dragonomics said local labor markets cannot absorb the volume of returning migrant workers, making urban job search the most practical option for many. However, she noted that hiring demand is weakening across construction, manufacturing and services, while new jobs are increasingly concentrated in AI-related sectors—creating a mismatch for laid-off workers.
Mr. Chen, a former migrant worker in his 60s in Longhui, said he still wants to go to Guangzhou, the capital of Guangdong, if he can find a job paying at least 5,000 yuan per month with room and board. But he said opportunities are limited given his age, so he decided to return to Hunan for long-term living and rely on seasonal construction and repair work.
“To go to Guangzhou now isn’t worth it. In the countryside, if you can earn a living, that’s enough,” Chen said.
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