Vietnam coffee prices fall on supply pressures as export volume rises 12.6% in Q1 2026, while value declines

Vietnam’s coffee exports in March 2026 were estimated at 210 thousand tons, worth 956.2 million USD, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment. In the first three months of 2026, total exports reached 577.3 thousand tons, earning 2.71 billion USD—up 12.6% in volume but down 6.4% in value compared with the same period in 2025.

Export growth in volume, value pressured by lower prices

Coffee export volume in the first three months of 2026 rose 12.6% year-on-year. The decline in export value was attributed mainly to a sharp drop in the average export price.

In Q1 2026, the average export price was 4,696.8 USD per ton, down 16.9% year-on-year. This price fall pulled down export value despite higher shipment volumes.

Key buyers and shifting market shares

Germany, Italy and Spain remained the three largest buyers of Vietnamese coffee, with market shares of 16.4%, 8.6% and 7.6%, respectively. Compared with the same period in 2025, exports to Germany rose 3.2%, Spain increased 14.1%, while Italy fell 11.5%.

Among the top 15 markets, China recorded the strongest growth, doubling versus the same period, while the Philippines fell 23.9%. The data points to continued global demand alongside shifting buyer preferences amid competition and price volatility.

Domestic prices ease in the Central Highlands

In March 2026, coffee prices in Vietnam’s Central Highlands decreased compared with the previous month. The range fell from 2,500–2,800 dong/kg to lower levels.

• In Dak Nong, the buying price reached 93,800 dong/kg, down 2,800 dong/kg.
• Dak Lak and Gia Lai were both at 93,700 dong/kg, down 2,700 dong/kg.
• Lam Dong was around 93,000 dong/kg, down about 2,500 dong/kg.

The price decline was linked to expectations of a record coffee harvest in Brazil, the world’s largest producer. Although disruptions in freight through the Hormuz Strait raised logistics costs, this was not enough to offset a global oversupply.

Trading in the domestic market was relatively subdued as many farmers had not yet sold, hoping for a price recovery. Meanwhile, enterprises with export contracts shifted buying from Brazil and Indonesia to ensure supply.

International market: Robusta down on supply, Arabica supported by quality concerns

On international markets in March 2026, Robusta and Arabica moved in opposite directions. For Robusta, improved global supply weighed on prices. Robusta May futures on the London exchange ranged from 3,455 USD/ton to 3,772 USD/ton.

Arabica prices were supported by concerns about short supply of high-quality coffee. Arabica May futures on the New York exchange reached a high of 317.85 US cents/lb and a low of 283.15 US cents/lb during the same period.

By the early April 2026 trading session, both varieties had fallen. By the early-morning close on 3/4 (Vietnam time), Robusta was at 3,448 USD/ton, with Arabica also retreating, reflecting broad market softening.

What is driving the downward trend

Experts cited a stronger US dollar and expectations of ample supply from Brazil and Uganda as key factors pushing prices down. They also pointed to news about expanding coffee-growing areas in many countries, which further affected market sentiment.

While coffee prices remain relatively high compared with many years ago, the recent downward trend is raising concerns for growers. Production costs—especially fertilizers and labor—remain high, squeezing farmers’ profits.

Industry response: raising quality to increase value

To respond to market fluctuations, Vietnam’s coffee sector is emphasizing a shift from output growth toward quality improvement and value-added development.

Robusta XXI initiative and quality standards

At a seminar titled “Expert Consultation on Robusta Quality and Market Transformation” organized by the Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association, experts and business leaders highlighted the need to build a quality standards system for Vietnamese Robusta.

Mr. Le Duc Huy, representative of the Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association, said Vietnam has established itself as the world’s leading Robusta producer, but the production-volume advantage does not automatically translate into leadership in quality standards or the ability to shape value on the international market.

He noted that the Robusta XXI initiative is being rolled out to develop a scientifically based quality assessment framework aimed at forming voluntary standards for Vietnamese Robusta. The initiative is seen as a key step toward raising product value and improving competitiveness.

Standardization, “quality language,” and buyer trust

Speakers argued that moving to a new development stage requires the sector to focus not only on increasing output, but also on measurement, standardization, and building a “quality language” for the product. They also stressed that building trust from international buyers is crucial.

Enterprises expect that if implemented effectively, Robusta XXI will help create a quality ecosystem—supporting Vietnamese Robusta coffee to remain a large export while also strengthening its influence in global standards.

Outlook

In the short term, the coffee market is expected to remain under pressure from rising supply and global economic volatility. Over the long term, Vietnam’s coffee industry is described as having opportunities if it leverages production advantages while pivoting toward sustainable development and quality enhancement.

Deeper integration into the global value chain, including initiatives such as Robusta XXI, is expected to help Vietnam maintain production dominance and elevate value and brand presence internationally.

15:38, 26/03/2026