Vietnam Stabilizes Fuel Prices as Global Oil Rally Triggers Government Stabilization Measures

Within less than a month after Middle East tensions intensified and crude oil prices rose above 100 USD per barrel, Vietnam activated its Fuel Price Stabilization Fund nine times, advanced 8,000 billion VND from the state budget, and introduced large-scale tax measures to contain fuel costs.

Oil price shock spreads across Southeast Asia

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East at the start of 2026 drove sharp volatility in energy markets. WTI crude settled at 90.90 USD per barrel on Mar 6, 2026, up 12.2% in a single day, while Brent was at 92.69 USD per barrel, up 8.5%. By the end of March 2026, world diesel prices were close to 238 USD per barrel, more than 2.5 times the pre-crisis baseline of 92–95 USD per barrel.

The surge spilled into regional retail markets. Seasia.stats data published on Mar 29, 2026 showed gasoline and diesel increases since the conflict began of 54.2% and 81.6% in the Philippines, respectively, and 55.4% and 76.9% in Myanmar. In Thailand, gasoline rose 14–22% and diesel rose 18% in a single night on Mar 26. The Philippines declared a national emergency, Thailand imposed export bans on gasoline and diesel, and Thailand’s Fuel Fund was exhausted under pressure.

Vietnam faced the shock while remaining a net importer of about 30% of its domestic gasoline and diesel consumption.

Vietnam’s policy response: coordination, pricing rules and supply measures

Vietnam issued multiple legal documents to strengthen crisis coordination and adjust fuel price management. On Mar 4, 2026, Decision 385/QD-TTg established the Energy Security Task Force, creating a cross-ministerial mechanism to respond to the crisis.

On Mar 6, 2026, Resolution 36/NQ-CP allowed Petrovietnam to take more proactive actions in purchasing, selling, and importing/exporting crude oil, and to establish a flexible price-adjustment mechanism. On Mar 19, Resolution 55/NQ-CP further refined the price-management mechanism.

Alongside these measures, the Government directed construction of the National Refining, Petrochemical and Energy Center at Dung Quat to improve self-sufficiency over the long term.

Energy Minister Le Manh Hung engaged directly with Nghi Son and Dung Quat refineries, Petrovietnam and other key traders to develop response scenarios, regulate supply, diversify imports, maintain high-capacity operations while ensuring safety, and strengthen price monitoring and market surveillance to curb speculation and hoarding.

Fuel Price Stabilization Fund and fiscal measures

The most direct tool was the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund. The Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Finance activated the fund nine times in a month, with total disbursements estimated at 5,300 billion VND (about 217 million USD). This was the first time the state budget was advanced directly into the fund, at a scale of 8,000 billion VND (about 303 million USD) under Decision 483 signed by Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh on Mar 27, 2026.

The advance is repayable within 12 months, reflecting strict fiscal discipline compared with open-ended subsidies seen in some neighboring countries.

Without the Stabilization Fund, the article estimates E5 RON92 would have risen to about 30,180 VND per liter, RON95-III to nearly 33,700 VND per liter, and fuel oil to around 38,930 VND per liter—above the actual announced prices by 3,000–5,000 VND per liter.

Tax and fee reductions to lower retail prices

Vietnam also rolled out tax measures. Import duties were set to 0% for certain fuel items from Mar 9 to Apr 30, 2026. Environmental tax on gasoline (except ethanol), diesel and aviation fuel was reduced to 0% from Mar 26 to Apr 15. Excise tax on gasoline was reduced from 8–10% to 0%. Enterprises were exempt from VAT while still eligible for input tax credits.

According to the Domestic Market Management and Development Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade), total budget revenue losses are estimated at about 7,200 billion VND per month (approximately 295 million USD). The Government said these measures are necessary to stabilize prices and ease cost pressures on the economy.

Faster price adjustments and fuel pricing outcomes

Vietnam introduced flexibility in price adjustment. On Mar 6, price changes could be made when the base price rose by more than 7%, rather than waiting for a standard seven-day cycle. On Mar 19, Resolution 55 allowed even faster adjustments within one day if fluctuations exceeded 15%, aiming to avoid explosive price shocks seen in Thailand and the Philippines.

By the operation date Mar 7, 2026, gasoline RON95 was priced at 27,047 VND per liter and diesel 0.05S at 30,239 VND per liter, described as the largest single-period increases in years and linked to world price moves. The average world price for gasoline RON95 on Mar 5–6 was 116.165 USD per barrel, up 26.37%, while diesel averaged 153.485 USD per barrel, up 35.94%.

The policy response produced a quick reversal. By Mar 26, after tax and fee measures were applied together, E5 RON92 fell to 23,326 VND per liter—down 6,788 VND from the Mar 24 peak, a 22.5% drop in a short span.

Supply management and refinery operations

On the supply side, Dung Quat and Nghi Son refineries accounted for roughly 70% of domestic demand. Dung Quat remained stable with no direct impact on crude supply and had sufficient feedstock through the end of April 2026. Nghi Son faced higher risk due to crude from Kuwait, but stocks and shipments kept production ongoing, while management sought substitutes.

The remaining 30% was imported. Traders reported March supply as basically adequate, while April was projected to be more challenging due to price spikes and export restrictions in some countries prioritizing domestic consumption.

Expert assessment and forward-looking measures

Professor Ngô Trí Long said the Ministry of Industry and Trade acted proactively and promptly to secure supply, adding that stabilizing energy and fuel prices is essential for controlling costs, strengthening energy security and supporting macroeconomic stability. He also cited flexible price adjustments, use of the Fuel Stabilization Fund, and requirements for firms to maintain supply as factors limiting spillover effects, alongside crisis-management scenarios to support smooth distribution during peak tension.

In the near term, MOIT plans to continue monitoring international volatility and strengthen national reserves to be more proactive about fuel supply. For mid- and long-term planning, the Energy Security Task Force proposed accelerating national fuel stockpiling, developing a framework for state-enterprise stockpiling, and having the State Bank of Vietnam prioritize foreign-exchange allocation and favorable credit for crude-oil imports. The plan also includes promoting biofuels and energy efficiency to gradually reduce dependence on imported oil.

With the Hormuz Strait still unsettled and global oil prices continuing to fluctuate, Vietnam’s approach—combining the Stabilization Fund, flexible tax measures, a shortened one-day price-management mechanism, and tight inter-ministerial coordination—is being tested in what the article describes as potentially the largest energy crisis in the region in decades.