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The conflict shows signs of heating up, with another round of negotiations still unclear. Cash flow has become more cautious, slowing trading across the board, though some stocks still rose sharply. The VN-Index gained 1.1% today, supported by a rebound in the Vin group.
VHM hit the ceiling, while VIC rose 1.65%. During the session, the two pillars swung widely, moving from negative to positive on high liquidity, which the market read as a sign of strong cash flow. VHM reaching the ceiling near its historical peak suggests potential to surpass that level, while VIC closed at a new high.
Despite the Vin group’s strength, the overall market remained mixed. VN30 stocks led the gains, and outside the Vin group, several names rose more than 1%, including HDB, HPG, SSI, FPT, TCB, and VCB. In the VN-Index, green stocks outnumbered red ones, indicating that in a low-liquidity backdrop, selling pressure appeared light.
Trading activity remained very low. The two exchanges matched about 18.8 trillion dong excluding negotiated deals, reflecting a cautious overall mood. The money-flow distribution also showed that only 24.2% of HSX traded value was concentrated in the losers group.
With about 48 hours left until the cease-fire deadline, the next steps in negotiations are a key driver. If both sides confirm a meeting, tensions could ease. If negotiations fail, the probability of renewed conflict remains high.
Asian stock markets reacted better than European and U.S. markets. Oil futures recovered strongly by about 5–6%, nearly reclaiming declines seen when information about the Hormuz Strait first emerged. The focus remains on negotiations: even if conflict occurs during the negotiation phase, that is not unusual. The market is looking for specific signals of de-escalation or cooling rather than hard rhetoric.
Speculative money remained active amid light selling pressure. Many stocks continued to rise, including VHM, HCM, HDB, TCB, VHC, BCM, and BMP, which showed favorable short-term price movements. While not every stock attracted strong money, liquidity was sufficient for speculative trading to continue.
Derivatives trading moved over a wide range and was described as uncomfortable. The basis swung, making both long and short setups high risk. The VN30’s initial drop to around 1982.xx coincided with the basis widening by about +6 points at the F1 bottom, which hurt long positions. The impact was smaller than the period when VN30 jumped to around 2010.xx and the basis discounted again.
The widest swing occurred during that episode, but gains did not match the risk. The long side from 1997.xx to near 2010.xx by day end showed a similar pattern: basis discounting offered little advantage and mainly reduced risk.
The market is moving on a short-term trajectory and is likely to change, so investors are advised not to rely on today’s moves for tomorrow. Light selling pressure may create opportunities for some stocks supported by speculative money, but in the short term, caution remains paramount. The view is to avoid large bets based on hoping for a favorable scenario, as information can change quickly and conditions can shift overnight.
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