Vietnamese corporate bond market in Q1 2026 shows notable progress in issuance value and credit quality

Despite being affected by the Lunar New Year holiday season's extended impact and cautious sentiment among issuers during the period awaiting business plan approvals, the corporate bond market in Q1 2026 recorded notable progress in both issuance value and credit quality. VIS Rating's Corporate Bond Market Report, issued on 2 April, shows that primary issuance in Q1 2026 reached VND 30.6 trillion, up 22% year-on-year. The brightest highlight lies in the credit profiles of issuing institutions, with the default rate falling to near 0%, significantly lower than 0.2% in Q1 2025. Meanwhile, efforts to resolve bad debts from bonds have yielded positive results, with recoveries totaling about VND 5 trillion, lifting the cumulative recovery rate to 46%. However, the Q1 2026 corporate bond market faces a test from developments stemming from the US-Iran conflict. Rising energy prices push inflation, narrowing the room for monetary easing and pushing interest rates higher, directly raising funding costs for both banks and corporate groups. REAL ESTATE AND BANKS ARE LEADING CAPITAL FLOWS In the new issuance structure for the first quarter, the real estate sector continued to lead, accounting for about 53% of total issuance value. The largest contributor is Marina Center Investment Co., Ltd., with bond value of nearly 10.2 trillion, maturity 10 years. The strong comeback of real estate developers is not only in issuance numbers but also in efforts to settle old debts. Bond resolution of late payments concentrated mainly in this group, exemplified by issuers within the Novaland, Phuc Khang, and Sunshine ecosystems. On the other hand, the Banking sector remains the pillar for the secondary market. Although the yield to maturity YTM of bank bonds with the credit rating Above Average is rising in line with the overall rate level, liquidity remains very high. Commercial banks such as HDBank, BIDV and VietinBank continue to favor public issuance to diversify the investor base. Notably, the market structure is gradually becoming more balanced as the share between privately issued corporate bonds and public issuance becomes roughly equal. Not only banks, but some non-banking enterprises in construction and agriculture have started issuing bonds publicly, signaling growing public investor confidence. FUTURE MATURITIES PRESSURE AND RECAPITALIZATION CHALLENGES IN A NEW CONTEXT Looking ahead, debt maturities in 2026 remain a significant challenge. The total outstanding corporate bond debt as of the end of Q1 2026 reached VND 1,432 trillion, with banks accounting for the largest share at VND 686 trillion, followed by residential real estate at VND 390 trillion. According to VIS Rating's forecast, if geopolitical conflicts persist, investor confidence could deteriorate, causing companies to delay investment plans and limit refinancing capacity via the bond market. In the list of entities with the largest maturities in 2026, names such as Vingroup (11.7 trillion), Vinhomes (10.5 trillion) and ACB (7.5 trillion) will be the market focal points. Nevertheless, with the average liquidity on the secondary market at VND 8.2 trillion per day (up 64% YoY), the Vietnamese corporate bond market is supported by a solid cushion. The improvement in transparency and debt repayment discipline (evidenced by the downward trend in the cumulative default rate across quarters) is the key to helping the market weather headwinds from the global economy and move toward a more sustainable growth cycle.