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Amid current conditions, the operating-rate trend set by the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has become a focal point for market forecasts. The market is effectively balancing two forces: the SBV is working to maintain a flexible monetary environment to support growth, while also facing pressure from exchange-rate movements and persistent inflation. In particular, when international rates—especially those linked to the U.S. Federal Reserve—remain high, the scope to lower Vietnam’s deposit and lending rates appears to be narrowing.
Banking differs from many other industries because a bank’s “raw material” and “finished product” are money. As a highly leveraged financial business, it depends heavily on market confidence. A common analytical error is to apply the mindset of a retailer or factory to banking, which can lead to misguided investment decisions. Understanding the domestic banking system’s position before external shocks is therefore key to distinguishing real risk from short-term fluctuations.
One of the most troubling issues in 2026 is asset quality across the banking system. Non-performing loan (NPL) figures reported on financial statements can sometimes understate the situation due to delays in debt restructuring policies. At present, risk appears to be concentrated in a limited number of core sectors, which can create significant provisioning pressure and directly reduce banks’ profits.
However, the bottleneck is not only the numbers but also the process of handling bad loans. Legal obstacles and local restrictions on collateral markets are slowing capital recovery. The direction of NPLs over the next 6–12 months is described as the biggest unknown, determining whether they peak or continue to spread—an area the program plans to unpack with expert input to help investors identify banks with genuine risk-management buffers.
Banks’ earnings outlook is also shaped by pressure on net interest margin (NIM), driven by higher funding costs and lending rates that do not rise in tandem. As a result, banks are expected to adjust their business models.
In 2026, the growth story is not expected to rely solely on expanding credit to the economy. Instead, banks that increase their focus on services, optimize operating costs through digital banking, and diversify non-credit income may be better positioned. The key for investors is to monitor how banks reorient their strategies to sustain efficiency in a volatile interest-rate environment.
For stock investors, the central question remains whether bank stocks are still “cheap.” Against the backdrop of credit growth, asset quality concerns, and bank-specific developments (including M&A and selling foreign stakes), the program will address what criteria investors should prioritize in 2026.
It also raises the question of whether portfolios should tilt toward solid state-owned banks, large private banks, or smaller banks with potential “breakout” opportunities—topics to be discussed with experts in Vietstock LIVE #25 under the theme “Interest rates, bad debts & the outlook for banking stocks.”
Vietstock LIVE is presented as a series of online, in-depth dialogues featuring top experts to discuss and analyze major market issues. The program aims to connect macro and micro trends with how they affect investment strategies for both individuals and institutions.
The session is moderated by Mr. Nguyen Quang Minh—CMT, Charterholder, a member of the American Association of Technical Analysts (MTA), and Director of Vietstock Research. He is described as having nearly 20 years of experience analyzing and investing in the Vietnamese stock market.
Joining the program is Mr. Le Chi Hieu—Head of Banking Sector Analysis, Vietstock’s Investment Analysis and Advisory division. He is described as having 18 years of experience in banking and finance, including work at major Vietnamese banks such as Vietcombank and VPBank.
The Vietstock LIVE #25 livestream will be broadcast online at 3:00 PM on Friday, 24/04/2026 on Vietstock’s Fanpage & YouTube channel.
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