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Giấy phép số 4978/GP-TTĐT do Sở Thông tin và Truyền thông Hà Nội cấp ngày 14 tháng 10 năm 2019 / Giấy phép SĐ, BS GP ICP số 2107/GP-TTĐT do Sở TTTT Hà Nội cấp ngày 13/7/2022.
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Vietnam’s goods trade balance remained in deficit in the latter half of March 2026, with the deficit reaching 56.48 million USD. A preliminary report from the General Department of Customs showed that in the period March 16–31, Vietnam’s total goods exports and imports rose to about 52.13 billion USD, up…
Under the base case scenario, MB Securities (MBS) expects intrinsic momentum to support the VN-Index in forming a second bottom around the MA200 as earnings season approaches.
MBS said the market’s near-term focus will center on three events:
On the macro side, MBS noted that despite initial impacts from the Middle East conflict, Q1 2026 GDP rose to 7.83%. The brokerage said this strengthens macro fundamentals, supports progress toward the year’s growth target, and helps maintain investor sentiment ahead of upcoming major events.
At the same time, external shocks remain uncertain, while domestic information flow is viewed positively, including FTSE Russell’s assessment and the National Assembly’s election of the President, Prime Minister, and Speaker in the coming week.
MBS assessed the overall context as leaning toward continued trading within a range bounded by the MA100 and MA200, at 1,660–1,750 points. In the base case, internal momentum is expected to help the market form a second bottom around the MA200 as earnings season approaches.
MBS said cash flow shows signs of profit-taking and a shift away from commodity and defensive groups, including Oil & Gas, Fertilizers, Power Production & Distribution, and Insurance. The brokerage interpreted this as a sign that market risk is easing as investors gradually refocus on company fundamentals.
Conversely, the Securities group attracted capital again after FTSE Russell’s interim results, recording the highest capital concentration in the past four weeks. MBS also noted money beginning to return to Steel and Vingroup.
MBS highlighted that VN-Index reclaiming the MA200 last week is a positive signal.
In a correction scenario, if the index tests the MA200 region or 1,660–1,665 and forms a bottom higher than last week’s (1,580–1,600), with liquidity declining or staying low, MBS said the probability of a technical rebound toward around 1,750 is fairly high.
A negative scenario would emerge if VN-Index loses the key support zone of 1,580–1,600. MBS said selling pressure could then push liquidity up sharply, confirming a shift from a distribution phase lasting more than six months to a clear downtrend.
As a result, MBS raised VN-Index support from 1,580–1,600 to 1,640–1,660. The recommended stock-to-cash ratio remains 40/60.
MBS advised investors to prioritize buying or restructuring during corrections, avoid chasing prices on days of strong gains (especially when VN-Index breaks through 1,720), and during the sideways consolidation phase aimed at forming a second bottom, focus on Midcap stocks that have formed clear bottoms, including residential real estate, banks, steel, Vingroup, retail, and industrial real estate.
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