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As of March 30, the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) was down 7% from its all-time high, marking the first significant fall for the S&P 500 in roughly a year.
Pullbacks of this magnitude can be uncomfortable, but they are not unusual. On average, declines of at least 5% typically occur about once a year. The key issue for investors is whether the move remains a temporary setback or develops into something more damaging.
Short-term performance and volatility can be influenced by many factors, but long-term stock gains typically depend on corporate earnings growth. The article points to improving earnings expectations as a reason the current pullback may represent opportunity rather than warning.
S&P 500 earnings are expected to grow 13% year over year in the first quarter of 2026. If that forecast is met, it would represent the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.
The article identifies the Iran War as the biggest driver of stock market volatility this year. It has pushed oil prices higher, increased inflation expectations, and reduced the likelihood of a Fed rate cut this year.
However, there are signs the conflict could be nearing a conclusion. The stock market has already priced in a higher probability of resolution. If a settlement is reached and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the article suggests investors are likely to respond positively.
Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO)
Data source: Vanguard, as of 3/31/26.
The article also highlights valuation and near-term catalysts that could support buying VOO despite current volatility.
While the market’s current volatility is making many investors uncomfortable, the article argues it may also create a buying opportunity—particularly if earnings growth continues and geopolitical risks related to the Iran War ease.
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