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XRP traded with sharp swings alongside broader risk assets on Friday as traders repositioned ahead of US-Iran talks. The move came after a relief rally earlier this week, with oil rebounding and US stock index futures turning lower.
The XRP/USD exchange rate was “wobbling” between gains and losses, but remained up 4.35% from its weekly low of $1.29.
Brent crude climbed back toward $98 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz stayed severely disrupted. Traffic was reported at less than 10% of normal levels, and Barclays warned that delayed normalization could keep crude elevated.
At the same time, sentiment in equities weakened: Dow futures fell 0.4%, S&P 500 futures slipped 0.3%, and Nasdaq 100 futures declined 0.2%. Investors were also assessing whether the ceasefire would hold.
In this environment, XRP is described as highly sensitive to headlines. Peace signals can lift risk appetite, while renewed disruption in oil and equities can quickly reintroduce downside pressure on high-beta tokens.
Recent commentary from XRP Ledger validator Vet and Ripple engineer Mayukha Vadari suggested XRP could be less exposed to quantum computing risks than Bitcoin.
Vet said about 300,000 XRPL accounts holding roughly 2.4 billion XRP have never sent funds, meaning their public keys have not been exposed on-chain and may be less vulnerable to a future quantum attack.
He added that only two long-dormant whale accounts holding a combined 21 million XRP appear materially exposed, or about 0.03% of the circulating supply.
Experts attributed the relative advantage to XRPL’s account-based design, which allows signing key rotation without moving funds. Vadari also pointed to escrowed XRP protected by time locks as an additional layer of defense until funds become claimable.
By contrast, the commentary noted that Bitcoin holders typically need to move coins to new addresses to reduce exposure, a process that can briefly reveal public keys and increase theoretical attack risk.
On-chain metrics indicate XRP may be in a bottoming range. The article cited XRP’s MVRV Z-score as hovering near zero, a level historically associated with accumulation zones and market bottoms.
The implication is that many holders are close to breakeven, which can reduce sell pressure and suggest downside exhaustion. Similar patterns were referenced from 2015, 2018, and 2020 ahead of major rallies.
However, the current setup was described as lacking a sharp capitulation spike or a strong upward reversal in the Z-score, meaning confirmation remains pending.
Overall, XRP was characterized as forming a base with limited downside risk, but a sustained recovery would require clearer momentum and a breakout above key resistance levels.
The bullish case for XRP also drew support from a reported shift in US liquidity. Market watchers said Fed net liquidity has risen above a multiyear downtrend after ranging for about four years, describing the setup as similar to late 2022, when improving liquidity coincided with a major crypto bottom.
The signal was also linked to macro conditions, with US PMI remaining in expansion territory, suggesting a firmer backdrop.
For XRP, the article said the implication is that if liquidity continues improving, downside pressure across speculative assets could ease—raising the odds of a stronger rebound later this year.
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