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It’s easy to understand why many crypto investors might be frustrated with XRP right now. For more than two years, they’ve been hearing how the altcoin is about to skyrocket in value, yet XRP continues to trade around the $1 price level. The token is now 62% below its 52-week high from last summer.
For that reason, the article says the author is avoiding XRP for now, with only one event potentially changing that stance in 2026: the arrival of altcoin season.
In crypto parlance, “altcoin season” refers to a period when speculative cryptocurrencies tend to rise faster than Bitcoin. During these stretches, altcoins often outperform Bitcoin and attract investors seeking outsized returns.
The article also describes a quantitative way to assess whether altcoin season is underway: compare the returns of the top 100 cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins) to Bitcoin over the past 90 days. If 75 or more of those cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin during that period, it is considered altcoin season; otherwise, it remains “Bitcoin season.”
Based on CoinMarketCap data cited in the article, the market is not close to altcoin season. Only 41 of the top 100 cryptocurrencies have beaten Bitcoin over the past 90 days.
The article adds that broader altcoin performance has been weak recently. It cites declines over the past 90 days including:
It also notes that only half of the 41 cryptocurrencies that have beaten Bitcoin are currently in positive territory, while the other half are described as “less negative” than Bitcoin. Bitcoin itself is down 15% over the past 90 days, according to the article.
The article warns that altcoin season might not arrive this year. It says that as long as geopolitical risk remains priced into the crypto market, it may be difficult for investors to shift toward highly speculative altcoins.
It also points to a policy catalyst that was expected to support the start of altcoin season: the passage of new crypto legislation known as the CLARITY Act. The article says this now appears unlikely to happen until later in the year, or possibly not until 2027. If so, it suggests the market could face “a year without an altcoin season.”
Until investor sentiment improves, the author says they are not buying XRP. Instead, they plan to wait and allocate capital to less speculative crypto assets such as Bitcoin.
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