Asian stocks fall as gold retreats and oil climbs after Trump orders Hormuz Strait blockade

Asian stocks turned lower and gold prices declined as oil rose, with global markets shifting to a more cautious stance after U.S. President Donald Trump ordered a blockade of the Hormuz Strait, escalating tensions with Iran. As of 9:45 a.m. on April 13 (Vietnam time), Brent crude futures were up 6.8% to nearly $102 per barrel, driven by concerns about supply disruption through the world’s most important energy transport route.

Oil jumps after Hormuz blockade order

Asian stock indices fell about 0.7%, while S&P 500 futures also dropped 0.7% as higher energy prices weighed on growth expectations. The U.S. dollar strengthened against all G10 currencies, reflecting safe-haven demand, while U.S. Treasuries weakened.

In rates markets, the yield on Japan’s 10-year government bonds rose to 2.49%, the highest since 1997, attributed to inflation concerns. Gold prices fell about 0.7% to around $4,710 per ounce, as higher oil prices increased expectations that interest rates would remain high, pressuring non-yielding assets.

Policy details and market reaction

Washington’s move reversed a short-lived rally following last week’s ceasefire, sending markets back into a defensive posture. However, the declines were described as relatively modest, suggesting investors still view the conflict as potentially manageable.

“This development needs to be monitored closely,” said Dionissios Kontos, co-founder of Meyka AI, before the blockade. “Iran’s Foreign Ministry remains open to negotiations, so this isn’t a total collapse, but rather a protracted period of uncertainty.”

The U.S. Central Command said it would begin locking down all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports from 10 a.m. on April 13 (New York time), in line with Trump’s proclamation. The United States will not block ships passing through Hormuz if they are not related to Iran. Iran said it will not permit the blockade to take place.

Trump said the U.S. will block any ship paying tolls to Iran to pass Hormuz and will mine the area. The blockade could prevent nearly 2 million barrels per day of Iranian oil from flowing, tightening global supply and reducing a major source of income for Iran.

Other markets: Hungary, bitcoin, and European gas

In Hungary, the forint strengthened against the euro and the dollar after Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s defeat by pro-European opposition. The result is viewed as positive because it could help Hungary access EU funding worth billions.

Bitcoin eased slightly to around $71,100. In Europe, natural gas prices surged during early-week trading in Asia, with Dutch TTF futures jumping as much as 18% to €51.30/MWh.

Earnings season and bond-market trade-offs

Markets have experienced sharp swings since the conflict escalated in late February, as the U.S. and Iran continuously adjust negotiation strategies. Some analysts said the reaction may be limited if investors interpret current moves as negotiation tactics.

“Part of the market had anticipated that weekend negotiations would not be positive,” said Hiroshi Matsumoto of Pictet Asset Management.

With the U.S. earnings season about to begin, S&P 500 profits are forecast to rise about 12% year over year, the lowest since Q2 2025. Goldman Sachs is set to kick off the earnings season on Monday. Investors are also assessing how corporate leadership characterizes risks, including higher inflation from oil prices and potential restraint in consumer spending.

Recent data cited in the report show U.S. inflation rising at the fastest pace since 2022, while consumer confidence fell. In this environment, higher-yield bonds are attracting some investors.

The yield on the U.S. 2-year note, sensitive to Fed policy, is around 3.85%, up nearly 0.5 percentage points since the war began. “Bond investors will have to weigh between safe-haven demand and inflationary pressure,” said Kyle Rodda of Capital.com. “If oil prices continue to rise due to Hormuz, inflation expectations could rise quickly and cap bond yields.”