Stock Blog: Short-term opportunities remain

On the first day, the Hormuz Strait was blockaded by the United States, but there were no new clashes. There is also information that the parties are preparing for a second round of talks, and the ceasefire could be extended further. In this context, a neutral, stabilizing scenario for the market remains the most feasible.

VN-Index rises as large-cap gains lead

The VN-Index closed the session up 0.95%, with a favorable gain/loss ratio of 1.28/1. Despite the index’s strength, the contribution from leading stocks was also notable: VIC rose 3.44%, VHM rose 4.88%, HPG rose 2.7%, and VPB rose 1.67%, supporting the overall gains.

Market dispersion points to short-term stability

The key development is dispersion. Stocks with strong speculative momentum continued to rise, moving through pullbacks while taking profits in a reasonable manner. This suggests a period of stability for short-term activity, even as price momentum varies.

Since the explosive rally on April 8, dispersion has occurred and stocks have shown short-term strength. About 47% of the stocks in the VNAllshare basket continued to rise further from the April 8 close. About 22% rose by 2% or more from that level, offering a relatively accessible short-term opportunity. To achieve higher performance—such as a 3% gain over the last four sessions—only about 40 stocks qualify. Additionally, based on liquidity thresholds for speculative trading (average daily turnover of at least VND 10 billion), only around 24 stocks meet the criteria.

Liquidity remains low, limiting large capital moves

These figures indicate that the market is not weak, but conditions are not particularly favorable either. The main risks have temporarily eased, yet the backdrop does not support aggressive deployment of large capital.

Today’s combined liquidity on the two exchanges reached about 21.4 trillion dong (excluding negotiated deals), up 2.2% from yesterday, but still at a low level. Notably, excluding the five largest trades, liquidity in the rest of the market declined by more than 1%. Overall, trading activity appears to be circulating mainly for short-term money rather than driving broad-based expansion.

Futures basis tightens after early optimism

From an optimistic perspective, this could be a favorable time to hold positions unless negotiations end and break down. While nothing guarantees the final outcome, a short-term view is not wrong either. Even if oil stays below $100 per barrel and the conflict remains frozen at current levels, negotiations extending for several months should not necessarily unsettle the market.

In early trading, the futures market was overly optimistic. With F1 approaching expiry, the average positive basis was near 33 points while awaiting VN30. Even after the main session began, the basis remained at 4–7 points. F1 surpassed 1960.xx, described as a resistance level for VN30. This creates a favorable short setup, with the key variable being whether the basis can maintain the spread if VN30 moves to 1960.xx.

The article also notes a risk-management approach: instead of a single stop-loss tied to the index level, split the position into two parts—cut losses on half if the basis moves against the trade (roughly a 3-point loss from entry), and cut losses on the other half if VN30 surpasses 1960.xx. The market then moved favorably, with VN30 declining and the basis tightening tightly, resulting in a “double gain.”

Outlook and key levels for VN30

With money flowing fairly slowly and no major issues in the broader picture, the short-term opportunity remains. Selling pressure is described as coming mainly from trading activity and unlikely to create large swings. If negotiations show progress or the ceasefire is extended, the market could continue to strengthen.

VN30 closed today at 1,946.55. Nearest resistance levels for tomorrow are 1,949; 1,959; 1,969; 1,982; 1,996; 2,005; and 2,015. Support levels are 1,939; 1,923; 1,907; 1,892; and 1,881.

“Stock Blog” is a personal piece and does not represent VnEconomy’s views. Opinions and assessments belong to individual investors, and VnEconomy respects the author’s viewpoint and writing style. VnEconomy and the author are not responsible for issues arising from the evaluations and investment viewpoints published.