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Macroeconomic conditions are described as favorable for Vietnam’s capital markets, but the outlook carries notable risks around interest rates, liquidity and foreign-exchange pressures. In 2026, the country opens the five-year plan for 2026–2030, targeting GDP growth of 10% or higher, with expansionary fiscal policy identified as the main driver alongside supportive monetary policy.
In its latest sector report, S&I Ratings expects a business-friendly environment to support corporate profits, which in turn could lift stock prices and trading activity. The rating agency also anticipates higher trading fees and margin lending, improved earnings for investment portfolios, and faster equity and bond issuance as firms seek capital.
These developments are expected to improve the medium-term outlook for Vietnam’s securities sector by increasing activity across equity and fixed-income markets.
Despite the supportive macro backdrop, S&I Ratings warns that interest rates remain under upward pressure. It also highlights foreign-exchange risk tied to the wide gap between mobilization and lending, which could prolong liquidity strains in the banking system and weigh on credit supply.
At the same time, credit demand is expected to rise sharply from both the public and private sectors, supported by a large pipeline of investment projects. With pressure building on both supply and demand, S&I Ratings notes that interest rates could move higher than the trough level sustained in 2025.
S&I Ratings outlines several channels through which interest-rate risk can affect securities firms (CTCK):
On the policy side, the government’s message is to maintain a stable interest-rate orientation to support production and business. S&I Ratings assesses that these pressures are unlikely to be large in the short term, and that CTCKs with strong capital buffers would have an advantage.
On FX, S&I Ratings expects pressure to ease versus 2025. However, the outlook depends on whether the Iran conflict lasts and affects energy costs and overall inflation.
S&I Ratings says the new regulatory framework is generally viewed positively for the securities industry over the medium and long term. The changes are expected to enhance transparency, investor protection and market discipline, while simplifying procedures and removing barriers for foreign investors to access Vietnam’s market—supporting new capital inflows.
More broadly, the government has proposed a plan to reform Vietnam’s financial market. The plan aims to develop the stock market into a central channel for medium- and long-term funding, amend the corporate debt framework, and promote an International Financial Center. It also signals efforts to unlock supply–demand for capital, facilitate IPOs, privatizations of state-owned enterprises, and create a foundation for a new growth cycle of the capital market, with CTCKs playing a crucial role across stock and bond markets and other financial instruments.
The upgrade to emerging market status is also described as a milestone for Vietnam’s stock market development, potentially improving governance transparency and deepening the market with more financial products.
From September 2026, S&I estimates that passive capital from ETF funds allocated to Vietnam could reach $1.44 billion, excluding larger active funds.
Vietnam is also approaching MSCI criteria, with potential MSCI upgrading to emerging market status in the coming years, which could widen access for foreign capital. In the short term, S&I Ratings notes that credit ratings could diverge among securities firms.
S&I Ratings expects that higher compliance costs and capital requirements, along with tighter controls, could pressure profits in the short term. This could lead to rating divergence among CTCKs, favoring large firms with stronger governance, while smaller, highly leveraged CTCKs may face restructuring pressures and rising costs.
The report also points to intense competition already facing the sector, including:
Overall, S&I Ratings frames 2026 as a year of opportunity supported by growth and market reforms, while emphasizing that interest-rate and FX-related risks could still shape performance across securities firms.
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