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Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs attracted $14.45M and $23.38M in inflows respectively on April 24, according to market tracking. The “Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April” market is at 0% YES, while the “Bitcoin all-time high by June 30” market is at 3.5% YES.
Continued inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reduce the likelihood implied by traders for Bitcoin falling to $60,000 this month. The “Bitcoin dip to $60,000” market remains inactive, suggesting limited new positioning. Institutional buyers appear to be treating Bitcoin as a safe-haven asset amid U.S.-Iran tensions.
For the June 30 all-time high market, the odds rose to 3.5% YES from 3% the previous day. Traders appear to be discounting a new peak before July, based on the relatively low probability. The longer-term outlook is higher: September 30 is at 11% YES and December 31 is at 18.5% YES, with sustained ETF inflows cited as a potential support for that longer-term case.
Ethereum spot ETFs recorded $23.38M in inflows on April 24, pointing to growing institutional interest. However, the “Ethereum $4,000 in April” market remains inactive, indicating limited changes in that specific implied outcome.
Combined 24-hour volume for Bitcoin’s all-time high markets was $8,027 in face value, while $917 in actual USDC was traded. Order book depth indicates it takes $959 to move the June 30 market by 5 points, which is described as moderate liquidity.
The largest observed move was a 2-point spike at 3:34 PM in the September market, attributed to a single large order.
At current levels, a YES share for the June 30 high pays $1 for a 28.57x return. For that bet to pay off, the article notes that traders would likely need sustained ETF inflows and easing geopolitical tensions.
Potential catalysts mentioned include announcements from BlackRock or Fidelity regarding ETF strategies, as well as Federal Reserve signals on interest rate policy. Either could move these markets.
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