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The heaviest resistance above Bitcoin’s current price is not a round number or a chart pattern, but the break-even point of millions of holders who bought during the past year and are still underwater. The analysis centers on realized price bands, which track the average cost basis of different groups of holders.
Three cohorts are currently sitting above Bitcoin’s spot price, meaning they entered at higher levels and need the market to rise before they can break even.
As Bitcoin climbs back toward these levels, many holders in the higher-cost cohorts are expected to sell. The motivation is not profit-taking; the analysis describes it as an exit behavior—holders looking to get out once they reach break-even.
One cited condition for confirming the “bottom” is that price clears $88,880 and holds without only briefly touching the level. The analyst’s view is that this would put the most recent cohort back in profit and remove an initial layer of sell pressure.
“For the bottom to be confirmed, price needs to clear $88,880 and hold – not wick through, not retest and fail. That puts the most recent cohort back in profit and removes the first layer of sell pressure.” — By @IT_Tech_PL
The bottom narrative is linked to earlier price action. Bitcoin fell to around $60,000 in February, a drop of roughly 52% from its all-time high of $126,200. Since then, the price has climbed more than 37% without setting a new low.
Sentiment indicators also improved. The Fear and Greed Index reportedly rose from a near-maximum fear reading of 5 in February to 47, described as a neutral reading that signals stabilization compared with the earlier panic state.
The analysis argues that “bottom calls” are narratives, while reclaiming and holding $88,880 is treated as the data point that matters. At the time of the analysis, Bitcoin was trading near $80,250, placing the key confirmation level roughly $8,000 away.
Until that gap closes and the level is held, the analyst’s conclusion is that market structure still favors caution over confidence.
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