•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Bitcoin bulls are looking to the year-end options expiry on Dec. 25, where roughly $6 billion is at stake. The outlook has been supported by a 33% price gain since Bitcoin’s $60,130 yearly low on Feb. 6, but the scale of call options targeting $115,000 and higher for Dec. 25 has also raised questions about whether bullish positioning is becoming overly confident.
Deribit is the dominant venue for December Bitcoin options, holding a 92% market share in open interest, which totals $5.5 billion. While open interest is large, the value realized at expiry is expected to be much lower because many contracts are placed on outcomes that are unlikely, either as hedges or as part of neutral strategies that do not require major price moves to remain profitable.
Call options lead in open interest. Put options are underrepresented by 56% on Deribit compared with calls. Even so, the $1.85 billion in open interest in call options targeting $115,000 and higher is significant enough to compare how optimistic those calls are relative to downside bets.
On the downside, put options targeting $55,000 and lower total $1 billion in open interest. The article notes that the share of bets considered improbable is similar across both segments, at roughly 50% of open interest in each. That implies that if call-side positioning is viewed as overly optimistic, bear-side positioning may be similarly extreme in its pessimism.
Beyond balancing strategies across different expiry dates, the structure of high-strike calls can provide relatively inexpensive exposure to extreme upside. For example, a call option at a $120,000 strike is described as offering “cheap exposure” to rare upside events. Based on Deribit prices on May 7, a buyer pays $2,202 to secure unlimited upside exposure to the equivalent of one full Bitcoin at a price of $120,000 or higher on Dec. 25.
The options skew metric is presented as a way to gauge professional traders’ comfort levels with upside versus downside risk. Put options are trading at a 9% premium relative to equivalent calls, which the article characterizes as signaling moderate fear of downside price movements. Under neutral conditions, the skew indicator is expected to range between -6% and +6%.
According to the derivatives metrics cited, investor optimism was not substantially impacted by the rally to $80,000.
Overall, the article concludes that the $1.85 billion in December call options should not be interpreted as a straightforward signal of excessive bullish confidence, given how hedging and neutral strategies can contribute to open interest at extreme strikes.
Premium gym chains are entering a “golden era” that is ending or already in decline, as rising operating costs collide with shifting consumer preferences toward more flexible, community-based ways to exercise. Long-term memberships are shrinking, margins are pressured by higher rents and facility expenses, and competition from smaller, more personalized…
