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For many crypto investors, part of the appeal of XRP is its low price. However, after analyzing dozens of cryptocurrencies priced at $1 or below, the article argues that XRP may be overvalued and points to Sky (SKY) as a potential alternative tied to the stablecoin growth narrative. XRP performance…
Bitcoin traded around $74,700 in Asian morning hours Friday, down 0.4% over 24 hours but up 3.5% on the week, as a 10-day rally in global equities paused ahead of next week’s U.S.-Iran ceasefire expiry.
Ether fell 1.4% to $2,327 but remained the strongest among major cryptocurrencies on the weekly tape, up 6%. XRP held $1.43, up 6.4% for the week. Solana rose 2.7% to $87.67, BNB added 0.7% to $629.89, and dogecoin was up 5.6% on the week at $0.0976.
The MSCI All Country World Index closed at a record high Thursday before slipping 0.1% in Asia. The S&P 500 also hit an all-time high.
Brent crude fell 1.2% to $98.20 after President Donald Trump said prospects for a permanent Iran ceasefire were “looking very good.” Trump claimed, without evidence, that Tehran had agreed to give up its nuclear ambitions, turn over nuclear material, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz as part of the deal. Iran has not confirmed those concessions.
A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was announced separately on Thursday, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirming the truce in a video message. The article said markets are trading the headlines as if the deal is closer than it is, helping unwind most of the war premium in equities while crude remains near $98 and the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively shut.
Despite relatively flat price action, some traders are focusing on derivatives positioning. Bitcoin perpetual funding rates have turned deeply negative in recent sessions, reaching levels last seen in 2023.
Funding rates are periodic payments exchanged between perpetual futures traders to keep contract prices aligned with spot. When funding goes negative, shorts pay longs, a pattern that typically indicates the market is heavily positioned against price.
“Funding rates this negative tell you the market is heavily short,” Daniel Reis-Faria, CEO of ZeroStack, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. “If Bitcoin continues to move higher despite that, a lot of those positions could get liquidated, and the move can accelerate quickly.”
Reis-Faria expects bitcoin could reach $125,000 in the next 30 to 60 days if the short base gets squeezed out.
“It’s a reminder that no matter how much shorting is in the market, the amount of buy pressure, especially from large companies, can squeeze those positions out,” he said.
On-chain analyst CryptoVizArt offered a contrarian read, saying bitcoin’s “True Market Mean,” a metric that estimates the average cost basis of active investors by filtering out lost and dormant coins, suggests the average active holder is currently underwater.
Since 2016, the article said meaningful stretches below the True Market Mean have coincided with bitcoin’s worst periods, including:
The article said the two reads do not have to be mutually exclusive: a short squeeze from negative funding and a structural drawdown from underwater holders can both be true. In that framework, the squeeze could trigger an outsized rally that is later sold into.
Which scenario dominates, the article added, may depend on whether the U.S.-Iran ceasefire extension holds past next week.
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