Bitcoin could face further decline unless it breaks above bear-channel resistance, warns Peter Brandt

Bitcoin’s rebound above the $79,000 area has not confirmed a durable bottom, veteran trader Peter Brandt said, warning that BTC remains within a broader corrective structure rather than a verified reversal pattern.

Brandt said Bitcoin has “NOT NOT NOT” completed a recognizable bottom, pointing to a daily chart structure that resembles a bear channel developing from the February low. He argued that the latest rise should be treated as a rally inside that channel until price posts a decisive daily close above the channel’s upper boundary.

Key levels and what would confirm or negate the rebound

Bitcoin was trading near $79,660 after testing resistance close to the upper side of the channel. Brandt highlighted $79,145 as the key level to watch, saying an ATR close below $79,145 would indicate the advance is losing momentum and that rejection from channel resistance is becoming more relevant.

Brandt said Bitcoin can break above the upper boundary of the current channel, but without that move the market remains inside a structure that could still favor lower levels.

If Bitcoin closes below $79,145 on an ATR basis, the next area to watch would be the midpoint of the channel, which could act as the next support zone if buyers attempt to defend the broader recovery. If the midpoint fails, the lower boundary of the channel would become the next downside objective, potentially taking BTC back toward lower price zones before a stronger base forms.

200-day moving average in focus

Brandt’s warning comes as Bitcoin tests its 200-day moving average near $82,400. On-chain analysts have compared the current setup with March 2022, when BTC rallied 43% before reaching the 200-day moving average and then resuming a broader downtrend.

Bitcoin has gained about 37% from its April lows, but resistance near the 200-day moving average has limited follow-through so far. Traders are watching whether the level becomes a breakout point or another rejection zone.

Profit-taking pressure near resistance

On-chain data indicates short-term traders are holding elevated unrealized profits following the rebound. Trader unrealized profit margins reached 17.7% on May 5, the highest reading since June 2025.

Higher unrealized profit levels can increase the likelihood of selling as holders who bought lower lock in gains when price approaches resistance. Similar profit margin levels appeared in March 2022 when Bitcoin tested the 200-day moving average before moving lower.

Daily realized profits also rose sharply, reaching 14.6K BTC on May 4—the highest level since December 10, 2025—suggesting more holders have started selling into strength after the recent recovery.

The Coinbase Bitcoin Price Premium turned negative in late April and remained below zero as Bitcoin moved toward $80,000. A negative premium can indicate weaker U.S. spot demand compared with other markets.

Spot apparent demand improved from a contraction of 91K BTC in April to about 11K BTC, but it remains negative. Some of the recent demand has also come from perpetual futures activity rather than stronger spot accumulation.

Inflation data adds pressure to risk assets

Brandt’s caution aligns with U.S. inflation data that has added pressure to risk assets. Producer inflation reportedly came in hotter than expected, with PPI year over year rising to 6% versus a 4.8% forecast. Core PPI year over year rose to 5.2%.

Higher inflation can reduce the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts and keep liquidity conditions tighter for Bitcoin and other risk assets. Markets have already grown more cautious after recent CPI data showed inflation at a three-year high.

Performance over the past three months

Despite the short-term warning, Bitcoin has outperformed several major assets over the past three months. BTC has gained about 20%, compared with an 8% gain for the S&P 500 and a 6% decline in gold over the same period.