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Bitcoin failed to break above its 200-day moving average near $82,430, according to analytics firm CryptoQuant, cutting short its bear-market rally and leaving the market at a critical point ahead of its next move.
The rejection occurred as Bitcoin traded below $80,000 on Wednesday, after falling short of the average closing price over the past 200 days. CryptoQuant said the move is similar to Bitcoin’s behavior in March 2022, when a relief rally tested the 200-day moving average before a significant downturn followed later that year.
In that earlier episode, Bitcoin fell from highs around $47,000 to below $16,000 by the end of 2022.
CryptoQuant also pointed to elevated unrealized profit levels, which can increase sell pressure. Traders’ unrealized profit margins reached 17.7% on May 5, the highest reading since June 2025, the report said.
The firm noted that these margin levels resemble those seen in March 2022, when Bitcoin last tested the 200-day moving average before resuming its decline.
In addition, profit-taking has already started. CryptoQuant said traders recorded the largest profit-taking day last week—14.6K Bitcoin, worth $1.16 billion as of the time of writing—since December 2025.
Historically, the firm said this pattern tends to precede lower prices as traders begin selling.
CryptoQuant reported that the Coinbase Premium—defined as the difference between Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase versus Binance—has been negative since the end of April. The indicator is typically used to assess demand for BTC in the United States, and the firm said it currently points to declining demand for spot buyers.
Bitcoin was down about 1.6% over the last 24 hours and 2.5% over the last week of trading. It last traded at $79,379, roughly 3.5% below the 200-day moving average highlighted by CryptoQuant.
While the rejection could contribute to further downside, CryptoQuant said Bitcoin has a major support level around $70,000. The firm described this as an area where selling may become exhausted.
It added that Bitcoin may find support around $70K, the traders’ on-chain realized price, if the correction continues. The report said this level has historically acted as a resistance-turned-support band during bear markets, representing the average cost basis of short-term traders and a point where unrealized profit margins compress toward zero—reducing incentives for additional selling.
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