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Bitcoin is holding near the $70,000 level, renewing optimism among retail traders after a sharp decline in the first quarter. However, a macro-focused analyst cautioned that the current rebound may be a counter-trend move rather than the start of a sustained recovery.
In an Apr. 8 podcast, macro analyst Benjamin Cowen described Bitcoin’s recent price action as a “textbook” counter-trend rally. He warned that rallies of this type often attract late buyers before a larger decline resumes.
Cowen said Bitcoin is approaching a key bear-market resistance area defined by the 20-week simple moving average and the 21-week exponential moving average, which are currently near $78,000 to $79,000 and trending lower.
He pointed to historical patterns in prior cycles—2014, 2018, and 2022—where Bitcoin rallied into this zone, formed a lower high, and then fell to new lows.
“In bear markets, it does tend to act as resistance, especially near the end of several-month rallies,” Cowen explained.
Cowen estimated a 70% to 75% probability that Bitcoin will revisit or break below its February lows. He also suggested that a potential market bottom could form around October 2026.
Cowen also described typical mid-cycle behavior: early investors tend to sell during the initial downturn, the market then rebounds, and FOMO can draw buyers back in. He said this sequence often precedes another selloff that traps late entrants.
He added that several indicators have not yet confirmed a market bottom, including:
The MVRV Z-score remaining above zero
Bitcoin trading above its realized price
Supply metrics not yet signaling peak fear or capitulation
Until liquidity conditions improve and macroeconomic data stabilizes, Cowen advised treating rallies into the high-$70,000 range as potential opportunities to reduce risk rather than confirmation of a breakout.

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