Bitcoin price has not reached real bottom; analyst warns of further downside

While some analysts argue that Bitcoin has already found its bottom and may be preparing for a bullish reversal, one crypto analyst says the flagship cryptocurrency could still fall further before any sustainable recovery. Marmot, a crypto expert posting on X, rejected claims of a completed bottom and warned that Bitcoin could crash below $45,000 before turning upward.

Bitcoin price action mirrors the 2022 bear market

In a recent X post, Marmot compared Bitcoin’s current bear-market behavior with patterns from the 2022 cycle. The analyst said Bitcoin’s recent price action closely resembles the earlier bear market, suggesting the market has not yet reached its “true” price floor.

Forecast: a “real” bottom below $43,700

Marmot’s chart projects Bitcoin’s bottom below the $43,700 level. With Bitcoin reportedly hovering around $74,000 at the time of writing, the forecast implies a potential decline of more than 40% and a drop of more than 65% from its all-time high above $126,000 in October 2025.

The analyst noted that Bitcoin has already fallen more than 40% from that all-time high. Since the peak, the price has trended downward while posting brief rallies that Marmot described as “fake recoveries,” which he said can draw investors in before prices reverse sharply lower.

Three phases of the current bear market

Marmot divided the current bear market into three phases. He said the first phase was completed after Bitcoin crashed by more than 54% and is now trading around $74,000. He characterized the second phase as a period marked by repeated bull traps, fakeouts, and continued volatility that can pressure short-term investors.

He pointed to a recent bull trap following a US-Iran ceasefire announcement. Bitcoin surged briefly above $73,000, but the move was short-lived: the price reversed toward $71,000 before rebounding again above $74,000 at the time of writing.

According to Marmot, as bull traps and bear traps continue to eliminate both short and long positions, Bitcoin is now entering the final phase of the bear market—where he expects the true bottom to form.

Potential final crash and path to the bottom

Before reaching the projected low, Marmot expects one final crash to shake out remaining market participants. He said the current cycle is “almost perfectly repeating” the same bull-trap and bear-trap sequence seen in the 2022 cycle, with the bull and bear traps already completed as the market prepares for the next bottom crash.

In the chart, Marmot also suggested the decline may not be linear. He indicated Bitcoin could first drop to $45,500, then stage a brief rebound, before hitting a bottom and recovering—ultimately climbing back above $45,000 as a new bullish phase begins.