Bitcoin price prediction as pullback risk builds near 50-day SMA

Bitcoin is attempting to recover, but two separate technical views suggest rising risk around the move—one tied to a potential repeat of prior headline-driven rallies, and the other pointing to a likely pullback before any stronger upside attempt.

Weekly chart highlights a war-time pattern, but similarity is not proof

A weekly Bitcoin chart shared by Ted Pillows compares two geopolitical periods and argues that BTC may be repeating a similar structure. In both cases, the chart marks a war-related shock, a price bottom on the same day, and then a rebound after a government signaled openness to Bitcoin for specific payments.

In the 2022 comparison, Bitcoin rebounded after the Russia-Ukraine war began and then rose further after Russia said it could accept Bitcoin for oil exports. The rally later failed and price dropped sharply.

In the 2026 comparison, the chart shows a similar setup after the US-Iran war started, followed by a rebound and then Iran’s reported plan to accept BTC for toll fees.

While the parallel is visually clear, the analyst stresses that the chart is based on pattern analogy rather than confirmation of direction. The key takeaway is not that another new low is certain, but that the current recovery could be vulnerable if it is driven more by sentiment than by sustained strength.

Daily chart suggests a pullback toward the 50-day average

On the daily timeframe, a chart shared by SuperBitcoinBro shows Bitcoin slipping below the center line of a rising channel, a sign that short-term momentum may be weakening.

The setup points to a possible pullback toward the upward-sloping 50-day simple moving average. The analyst also notes that this area lines up with an open CME gap.

According to the chart, Bitcoin has been recovering within a rising channel after an earlier sharp selloff, but the latest move failed to hold above the channel midpoint. When price loses that area, attention often shifts toward lower support within the same structure rather than an immediate breakout higher.

The 50-day moving average is rising beneath price and appears close to where the market could retest support. In addition, the CME gap is described as being in roughly the same region. When a technical support level and a gap align, traders often watch the zone more closely during retracements.

At the same time, the broader channel is still intact, so the chart does not indicate a full breakdown. Instead, it suggests Bitcoin may pause or pull back before determining whether the larger recovery can continue. If buyers step in around the moving average and lower channel support, the structure could remain constructive.

What both charts imply for the near term

Taken together, the weekly view flags potential vulnerability in a headline-driven recovery, while the daily view points to a near-term test rather than a confirmed reversal. Bitcoin has lost the channel center on the daily chart, increasing the odds of a move lower toward support, with the 50-day average and the CME gap highlighted as key areas to watch.