Bitcoin price tests $75,000 ahead of tax deadline as scenarios unfold

Bitcoin is pressing against levels not seen in four weeks, trading near $74,000 after a sharp rally that left some short-positioned traders exposed. The move comes as the April 15 IRS tax deadline approaches, with analysts estimating up to $2.8 billion in tax-related sell pressure as US holders liquidate assets to cover capital gains obligations.

Options and key $75,000 inflection

Options market data from Deribit highlights $75,000 as a particularly “loaded” strike. In this context, $75,000 is less a traditional resistance level and more a volatility release point—an area where once directional momentum is established, price action could accelerate in either direction.

Technical backdrop: consolidation signals

Broader technical indicators suggest Bitcoin is holding within a consolidation phase ahead of a potential break. BTC is above the middle Bollinger Band at $70,113, while RSI is neutral near 49. The MACD histogram is flat, indicating limited directional momentum at present.

Price levels and volatility

At the time of writing, BTC/USD was quoted near $74,000 after recovering from the $68,000–$70,000 range that defined much of the prior week. On the four-hour chart, price is trading below the 50-day moving average, a mild near-term headwind. The 200-day moving average has turned upward since April 9, providing a more constructive longer-term backdrop. The daily average true range is approximately $2,561, pointing to moderate volatility.

Resistance and targets into April 15

Immediate resistance clusters at $74,800, cited by MEXC analysts as the key upper band for April. Beyond that, the $75,000 negative-gamma strike is described as the critical inflection point. CoinCodex projects a $75,311 target by April 15, though the forecast is accompanied by 18 of 32 tracked indicators currently reading bearish.

Three scenarios for the next 48–72 hours

• Bull case: BTC clears $74,800 on volume, and dealer hedging flows at $75,000 accelerate the move toward $77,000–$78,000.
• Base case: Price consolidates in the $71,558–$74,800 range through the tax deadline, then attempts a clean break higher once selling pressure subsides.
• Bear case: A post-deadline flush breaks $68,984 support, opening a retest of $67,602, flagged as a significant buy zone on longer-timeframe charts.

Broader market context and ecosystem angle

Bitcoin’s rally near all-time highs is viewed as encouraging, but the article notes that upside asymmetry has compressed as market capitalization has already reached the trillions. It also points to continued capital rotation into infrastructure and ecosystem projects, including Layer 2 development.

Bitcoin Hyper positioning

Bitcoin Hyper is positioning itself as the first Bitcoin Layer 2 to integrate the Solana Virtual Machine, aiming for sub-second smart contract execution while preserving Bitcoin’s security guarantees. The project’s presale has raised more than $32 million at a current token price of $0.0136786, with staking rewards active for early participants.

The stated value proposition focuses on Bitcoin’s limitations around slow settlement, high fees during congestion, and the lack of native programmability. The article says a Decentralized Canonical Bridge handles BTC transfers between layers.

It also notes that BTC’s strengthening correlation with macro risk assets suggests the rally could have support if macro conditions remain favorable, which historically has been constructive for adjacent ecosystem projects.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research before investing.