HYPE hits 2026 high as Hyperliquid volumes surge; can the rally last?

HYPE retested $45 this Tuesday, extending a 108% rally from its annual low of $21 recorded on January 21. Open Interest (OI) rose to $1.38 billion, while the platform’s annualized revenue reached $843 million in March. Arthur Hayes projects that HYPE could reach $150 by August if Hyperliquid’s revenue scales to $1.4 billion.

Hyperliquid token strength amid platform expansion

Market attention has shifted to Hyperliquid’s native token after it reached its highest levels since October 2025. The move coincides with an expansion phase as the platform seeks to consolidate its position in decentralized derivatives.

Mixed technical signals raise caution

Despite the price increase, technical indicators point to mixed conditions. In the spot market, the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) fell to -$41.48 million, suggesting a divergence between rising prices and actual buying conviction. This pattern implies the advance may be supported more by passive buying than by strong spot demand.

In futures, the CVD remains flat near -$748 million, reinforcing concerns that the market could be susceptible to sharp liquidations.

Key levels to watch

Market structure shows limited technical resistance between current levels and the all-time high of $59. The next relevant liquidity zone is identified between $48 and $52, which could be reached if ecosystem-driven momentum remains steady.

Hyperliquid expansion and the role of RWAs

Fundamental growth is presented as the main driver of optimism for HYPE holders. The HIP-3 upgrade enables trading of Real World Assets (RWA), including commodities, broadening the protocol’s revenue sources.

Gold and oil trading on the platform already account for nearly 10% of total revenue. Open interest in the RWA segment surged to more than $2.3 billion in early April, representing an 800% year-over-year increase.

Revenue allocation and token buy pressure

The value accrual mechanism is described as aggressive: the protocol allocates up to 97% of its revenue to purchasing HYPE on the open market. This creates ongoing buy pressure that ties the token’s demand to the platform’s operating performance.

Arthur Hayes’ outlook and required revenue growth

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, argues that HYPE could triple in value if Hyperliquid continues gaining market share from centralized exchanges. For the $150 target to be feasible, protocol revenue would need to grow an additional 66% over the next five months.

While on-chain indicators suggest cautious participation, the combination of a revenue-focused token model and expansion into new financial markets positions HYPE as a notable competitor within the 2026 bull cycle.