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The high amount of sidelined capital suggested investors were not fully sold on the current Bitcoin [BTC] rally. The accelerating rate of net institutional demand was the highest it had been since 2025, AMBCrypto reported recently. Yet, the cautious market sentiment was warranted, data showed.
The exchange whale ratio measures the relative size of the top 10 inflows to the top 10 outflows from the exchange, with moving averages used to smooth the data.
In a CryptoQuant Insights post, analyst Crypto Onchain said the 100-day simple moving average of the Binance Bitcoin Whale Exchange Ratio reached an all-time high of 0.494. A rising ratio signals increasing whale deposits onto the exchange, and the fact that the 100-day moving average was climbing indicated inflows were sustained rather than random noise.
As a result, despite the recent price bounce, the elevated whale ratio implied traders and investors should remain cautious about a potential whale-driven wave of selling.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr observed that the dominance of futures Long/Short liquidations was increasing. This meant a rising number of short liquidations following the $79.4k rally.
That pressure on short positions coincided with a drop in open interest. The 7-day moving average of Bitcoin futures on top exchanges fell by around 9k BTC over the past 10 days.
Adler Jr concluded that the combination of rising short liquidations and decreased open interest pointed to the move being driven primarily by a short squeeze. He added that the lack of new capital inflows could reduce the move’s sustainability.
Analyst Joao Wedson also weighed in, stating that new capital inflows were needed soon for bulls to keep the move going.
The Realized Cap Impulse indicator showed weakness, and the market was described as being in a capitulation phase. The article noted that the current “supply test” could quickly shift into another bearish price leg and potentially lead to the final bear market correction.
Overall, the data pointed to a rally that was largely fueled by a short squeeze rather than sizeable new capital inflows. Investors were advised to be cautious, particularly if the metrics do not indicate meaningful capital inflows.
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