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Bitcoin remained under pressure after the latest U.S. inflation data reinforced concerns that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—widely regarded as the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—rose 3.5% year-over-year in March and 0.7% month-over-month. While the figures matched market expectations, they also represented the highest annual increase since August 2023.
Core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased 3.2% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, reaching its highest level since November 2023. Persistent inflation pressures are being amplified by geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, which has pushed oil prices higher and added to broader market uncertainty.
Following the data release, Bitcoin fell to around $76,000 before stabilizing near $76,400, according to TradingView. Despite a modest intraday recovery, the cryptocurrency continued to face downward pressure as investors weighed macroeconomic risks and expectations for tighter liquidity.
Rising oil prices, with Brent crude surpassing $120 per barrel, further dampened sentiment across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The combination of higher energy costs and uncertainty tied to geopolitical developments contributed to a more cautious market tone.
Market participants were also digesting the Federal Reserve’s latest decision to keep interest rates unchanged. The central bank cited elevated inflation and uncertainty related to geopolitical developments as key reasons for maintaining its current policy stance. This was the third consecutive meeting without a rate change, reinforcing expectations that borrowing costs could remain high throughout the year.
Crypto traders are increasingly betting against rate cuts in 2026. Data from Polymarket showed a 58% probability that the Fed will not implement any rate reductions this year, up from 39% just days earlier. Higher interest rates typically weigh on Bitcoin and other digital assets by reducing liquidity and investor appetite for risk.
With inflation remaining persistent and global tensions unresolved, Bitcoin’s near-term outlook continues to be closely linked to macroeconomic developments and signals from Federal Reserve policy.
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