Bitcoin struggles to build a long-lasting uptrend in 2026: ETF flows slow and yields rise

Establishing a strong Bitcoin uptrend in 2026 remains a challenge, as exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows have shown limited growth since peaking above $60 billion in 2025. At the same time, inflows to the gold ETF also dropped by nearly 25% in Q1, and the lack of a capital rotation into BTC has muted institutional demand.

Bitcoin demand acceleration lacks pace

A report from Ecoinometrics points to a shift in the demand and persistence of Bitcoin ETF flows. Before the October 2025 price peak for BTC, ETF inflows often arrived in extended streaks, including a 15-day run of $4.4 billion in June 2025 that helped sustain upside momentum.

That consistency has weakened. The direction of ETF flows has changed more quickly in recent weeks, with inflow streaks lasting only a few days. Outflows have also clustered, reaching up to 10 consecutive days and totaling $3.2 billion in January, indicating more reactive positioning.

Role of higher Treasury yields

Ecoinometrics said the Federal Reserve’s lack of relief has reinforced the slowdown in demand. US Treasury yields have moved higher across maturities: the 30-year yield rose toward 4.9% from 4.7% six months earlier, while the 10-year bond yield increased to 4.3% from 3.8% in October 2025. The report noted that elevated yields provide competitive returns, reducing the need for sustained ETF-driven exposure to Bitcoin.

“As long as the bond market holds this view, Bitcoin is operating without a liquidity tailwind. And without that tailwind, sustained upside becomes much harder to build.”

Will Bitcoin overcome a key resistance level?

Crypto trader Ardi said one reason BTC’s range near $74,000 has not broken is that retail and professional traders appear to be behaving similarly. Long positions tend to fall as price tests resistance, while short exposure increases.

Hyblock’s four-hour chart shows a repeated pattern: long accounts decline sharply at highs, while short positioning builds at the same levels. In this setup, upward moves are treated as opportunities to exit rather than to extend exposure.

Ardi added that profit-taking from longs meets fresh short entries in the order book, reinforcing the upper boundary and interrupting attempts to retain the uptrend.

What would change the pattern

Ardi said a shift would require stronger long-term accumulation near the resistance, where buyers absorb available supply instead of reacting to it. For now, positioning data near $75,000 continues to cap each rally.

Potential shift in BTC capital flows

Early Bitcoin adopter Willy Woo suggested conditions may be changing. In an X post, Woo said capital flows into BTC have turned positive for the first time since January.

“Capital flows into BTC just flipped positive, first time since January. Liquidity is repairing... spot remains stable while derivatives after being destroyed 10 Oct is now making its second attempt at rebounding. 80k remains key test level.”